The Houston Texans have won six playoff games since their inception in 2002. All six of those victories, including last week’s 32-12 demolishing of the Los Angeles Chargers, have come in the wild-card round.
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This means the Texans have never advanced beyond the NFL Divisional round in their 23-year history. Despite this, their fanbase is confident that can change against steep odds tomorrow. Their belief stems from quarterback C.J. Stroud. On Friday, those fans gave Stroud a rousing cheer as he headed to the team’s bus ahead of Saturday’s matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs.
C.J.‼️ C.J.‼️ C.J.‼️ pic.twitter.com/txon6mEWiY
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) January 17, 2025
Stroud became the first quarterback in Houston franchise history to win multiple postseason games with his Chargers’ triumph. He would pull off another Texans’ first if he can outduel Patrick Mahomes on Saturday afternoon.
Unsurprisingly, doing so won’t be easy. While Houston has never won in the divisional round, Mahomes has never lost there. He’s a perfect 6-0 on divisional round weekend in his career.
History indicates Houston-Kansas City will be close
Kansas City dominated their opponents in Mahomes’ first two divisional-round appearances. The Chiefs blasted the Indianapolis Colts 31-13 in Mahomes’ first-ever playoff start on Jan. 12, 2019. One season later, they beat the Texans 51-31 after falling behind 24-0 early in the second quarter.
Since then, though, Kansas City has played four consecutive one-possession affairs in the divisional round. Their combined margin of victory across those contests is 21 points:
- 2021 Divisional: Chiefs – 22, Browns – 17
- 2022 Divisional: Chiefs – 42, Bills – 36 (OT)
- 2023 Divisional: Chiefs – 27, Jaguars – 20
- 2024 Divisional: Chiefs – 27, Bills – 24
FanDuel Sportsbook currently lists Kansas City as an 8.5-point favorite over Houston. This exceeds the margin the Chiefs defeated the Texans by in Week 16 (27-19). If Mahomes and Co. come out of the gate a bit rusty after having not played since Christmas Day, Stroud’s crew would presumably have a great opportunity to cover that spread.
Can the Texans actually upset the Chiefs?
When it comes to winning outright, things get tougher for head coach Demeco Ryans’ squad. Houston is dealing with a plethora of injuries on offense. The Texans are already missing wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell and are in danger of not having running back Joe Mixon (ankle) and wideout Robert Woods (hip). Both men are questionable for the game.
Across the field, Kansas City is as healthy as ever. Cornerback Jaylen Watson, who fractured his ankle in Week 7, is poised to return this weekend. The Chiefs are also extremely familiar with working on multiple weeks’ rest. This is the fifth time in the Patrick Mahomes Era they’ve earned a first-round bye.
Additionally, 35-year-old tight end Travis Kelce likely will only benefit from increased time off the field. He’ll be fully invigorated to help Kansas City capture a third consecutive Super Bowl and potentially end his career on the highest possible note.
On paper, the Chiefs seem destined to easily advance to the AFC Championship. However, there’s a reason the games are played on the gridiron. Out there, anything can happen.
The Texans’ best chance involves their defense replicating their wild card performance and Stroud avoiding turnovers. But until someone finally vanquishes Kansas City’s flame, they’ll deservedly be picked to win in these moments.
