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Is Josh Allen the New MVP Favorite Over Matthew Stafford?

Alex Murray
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Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford

Josh Allen continues to amaze the NFL world! He and his Buffalo Bills came back from a 21-0 deficit on Sunday to defeat the team ahead of them in the AFC East race, the New England Patriots, in a thrilling 35-31 win.

It was the first time since New England’s Gillette Stadium opened in 2002 that a team had completed a comeback of that size in the building.

And the performance has people, like ESPN insider Adam Schefter, talking about whether Allen has vaulted himself back into the MVP conversation. Schefter made the case on Get Up! on Monday morning.

“There’s nobody that’s more valuable than Josh Allen. Just watch that game yesterday… Is there any player in the league today—anybody—that you have more confidence in winning one game, and you would fear more going up against than that guy?” Schefter asked.

Allen amassed about 240 yards of total offense and threw three touchdowns without committing a turnover. An impressive game for some, but a ho-hum effort by the quarterback’s lofty standards. The numbers will always be there for him. It’s the wins and the potential to steal the AFC East from the Patriots that make Allen’s MVP case even more compelling.

Is Josh Allen doing more than Matthew Stafford with a lot less?

Dan Orlovsky said on the same show that he believes Allen is now neck-and-neck with Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford for the MVP nod, who has been the favorite for a few weeks now. Orlovsky also said he believes that Allen is playing with the weakest roster “1 to 53” that the QB has ever had.

And that supporting cast talk does weigh on MVP voters. When we’re talking about the most valuable player, the quality of the rest of the team matters. Is Stafford’s supporting cast better than Allen’s? We’d say that’s no contest. Apart from James Cook, Allen has little to work with. His tight ends have been mediocre or injured, his receiving corps is one of the worst in the league, and he’s been sacked sixth-most in the NFL (33).

Meanwhile, L.A. has one of the best TE rooms in football, arguably the best WR duo in football, an excellent pair of running backs, and an o-line that has allowed just 19 sacks, third-fewest in football. The Rams also have the third-best scoring defense, while the Bills are in the bottom half of those rankings.

Allen clearly has Stafford beat there, but there are other factors. Statistically, we’d say the two are pretty even. Stafford has slightly better passing totals, but Allen largely makes up for it with his 500+ rush yards and 12 rushing TDs, as well as better passing efficiency.

The decision is likely to come down to team success. If the Bills can win out and the Patriots lose to either the New York Jets or Miami Dolphins, Buffalo could take the AFC East with 13 wins. The Rams could reach 14, but what’s one win if both teams are top two seeds in their conference? At that point, with the stats likely still closely contested, Allen’s value will be burnished by his lack of a supporting cast.

As far as oddsmakers see it, it’s a three-horse race at this point between Stafford, Allen, and the guy Allen beat on Sunday, Patriots QB Drake Maye:

  • Matthew Stafford (-300)
  • Drake Maye (+425)
  • Josh Allen (+550)
  • Bo Nix (+7,500)
  • Jordan Love (+7,500)
  • Dak Prescott (+7,500)
  • Caleb Williams (+10,000)
  • Sam Darnold (+10,000)
  • Justin Herbert (+10,000)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Post Edited By:Samnur Reza

About the author

Alex Murray

Alex Murray

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Alex Murray has been active in the sport media industry since his graduation from the prestigious RTA School of Media at TMU (formerly Ryerson University) in downtown Toronto. He has had a specific focus and interest on all things football and NFL, which stems from his father, who imbued him with a love of football and the NFL over all other sports at a young age. Alex even played football up until his freshman year of college, when he realized that he would find more success writing about rather than playing the sport. Alex has written for a variety of sports media outlets, including theScore, FanSided, FantasyPros, GiveMeSport, and more.

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