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Is the NFL Heading Towards a Decline Despite a Boom in Revenue?

Nidhi
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The NFL is sitting at the top of the US Sports market. Drawing billions in revenue, the league outpaces almost every other US sports league in revenue generated. In fact, the Dallas Cowboys are by far the most valuable sports team, at a valuation of a whopping $9 billion. Safe to say, the league is making leaps and bounds in financial success. However, there seems to be trouble brewing for the sport, with many spotting a disastrous problem just on the horizon.
In a comprehensive deep-dive into the finances of the league, analyst Joe Pompliano painted a grim picture of the decline in popularity of the sport. While the financial future of the league looks bright, there is one aspect that might hurt the sport in the long run: youth participation.
According to data from the National Federation of State High School Association’s High School Athletics Participation Survey, youth enrollment in football has been waning since the 2010s. The most recent survey report from the NFHS, reveals that the 2021-22 school year marked the first instance since the beginning of the century where participation in 11-player high school football in America fell below a million players. The reported figure of 976,886 participants reflects a 12.2% decline from the peak observed in 2008-09. Participation in tackle football for children 6 to 12 has also dropped 30% since 2016.
Meanwhile, the NFL is witnessing unprecedented financial growth, generating nearly $12 billion in revenue in 2022. The $12 billion in national revenue, shared by all 32 franchises, reflects a growth rate of 7.8 percent. The league is also spreading its tentacles to an international audience, with games being played in London, Spain, and Germany. The audience for the game is not a problem, but if there is no one willing to play, what will audiences watch? The decline in youth participation points to the music that the league has long been unwilling to face.

The Physical Cost of Football

As Joe Pomp puts it, “We all know football is a dangerous sport.” Football is a physical sport, and horror stories about injuries and death have long predated this decline in youth participation. The average NFL tackle is similar to a car crash at 30mph. But it has a grimmer health problem it must contest with- chronic traumatic encephalopathy.

Despite the league’s best PR efforts to distance itself from CTE horrors, even denying any connection between repeated head impact from playing football and brain damage, the research has presented overwhelming data in the opposite direction. The Boston University CTE Center reported that out of 376 former NFL players examined, they have diagnosed 345 individuals with CTE, representing a prevalence rate of 91.7 percent.

The NFL seems to be tackling this problem head-on by introducing better helmets, having trauma specialists on the sidelines, and introducing flag football for the young population. However, parents are getting increasingly conscious of the physical cost of the sport. It remains to be seen what the future looks like for the sport. Will a rebranding help the game once more enjoy the same popularity as it did among youth once, or is it slowly going to peter out, only to be read about in history books?

About the author

Nidhi

Nidhi

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Nidhi is an NFL Editor for The SportsRush. Her interest in NFL began with 'The Blindside' and has been working as an NFL journalist for the past year. As an athlete herself, she uses her personal experience to cover sports immaculately. She is a graduate of English Literature and when not doing deep dives into Mahomes' latest family drama, she inhales books on her kindle like nobody's business. She is proud that she recognised Travis Kelce's charm (like many other NFL fangirls) way before Taylor Swift did, and is waiting with bated breath for the new album to drop.

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