Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs fell at the final hurdle last season, suffering a tough loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl 59. Despite the Birds steamrolling them, the Chiefs’ recent track record remains unmatched—they’ve now reached five Super Bowls in the last five years, winning three and losing two, along with making seven straight AFC Championship appearances under Mahomes and Andy Reid.
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Even after another Super Bowl defeat, many still expect them to be right back in contention next season, ready to avenge that loss and further cement their dynasty. After all, they were the AFC champions last year.
But surprisingly, the Chiefs aren’t the favorites to return to the big stage at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara this time. Despite their consistent dominance, Kansas City has fallen to third in the betting odds to win the AFC title. The Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills are now ahead, both listed at +370, while the Chiefs trail slightly at +400.
So why are the defending AFC champs being overlooked?
Kay Adams isn’t buying the shift. Vocal in her criticism of oddsmakers, she called the shift disrespectful to Mahomes and the reigning conference champs. She believes the Chiefs will use this as motivation to prove their doubters wrong—again.
Part of the dip in confidence stems from Kansas City losing key veterans this offseason, including All-Pro guard Joe Thuney and two-time Super Bowl champion safety Justin Reid. But Adams remains bullish on their chances, particularly because of an area she thinks few are talking about: the run game.
“People, what are we doing. We are poking the GOAT here. He still exists. There is an area where they are going to take a step forward this year, and I don’t think anyone’s talking about it. The run game with the Chiefs is going to improve.”
Last season, the Chiefs’ ground attack ranked near the bottom of the league. The offense lacked explosive, chunk plays, and Patrick Mahomes received little support from the backfield. The duo of Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco struggled to generate momentum. Pacheco, in particular, battled through several tough injuries that hindered his third-year progress.
As a result, Hunt had to carry the bulk of the workload, logging 200 carries for the first time since his rookie season. It was also his first year back in Kansas City. Despite the struggles, the Chiefs still won 15 games and made it to the Super Bowl.
The Chiefs won the AFC Championship last season and made it back to the Super Bowl, but they fell short when it mattered most. Their offense struggled to find rhythm without a reliable run game, and the offensive line crumbled under pressure. However, Adams believes it’s all about to change.
“A giant leap forward, a Saquon leap forward, believe it or not. They won 15 games last year, and if you don’t remember that all, they went to the Super Bowl with the run game that was bottom five, by far the worst in Mahomes’ era.”
Heading into the new season, Kansas City has retooled its roster with several key additions.
On the offensive line, the Chiefs re-signed right guard Trey Smith and brought in depth with Mike Caliendo, and tackles Jaylon Moore, Esa Pole, and Dalton Cooper. Most notably, they used their first-round pick to draft Josh Simmons, a talented left tackle who also has experience at right tackle, adding much-needed flexibility to the line.
Defensively, the Chiefs continued to reload. They added DT Omarr Norman-Lott, DE Ashton Gillotte, CB Nohl Williams, and LB Jeff Bassa from Oregon through the draft. In total, Kansas City re-signed or signed 24 players this offseason, significantly bolstering their depth across the board.
With these reinforcements, the Chiefs are poised to come back stronger. Andy Reid remains one of the most brilliant tactical minds in football, and Patrick Mahomes is still arguably the best quarterback in the league. But the road to Santa Clara won’t be easy.
Both the Ravens and the Bills have upgraded their rosters and will pose serious challenges in the AFC. Buffalo, in particular, came within inches of a Super Bowl appearance last season. With an improved defense, they could finally break through this time.
Still, if any team knows how to win the AFC and make it back to the big game, it’s Kansas City. They’ve done it five times in the last six years, and with Mahomes and Reid at the helm, you can never count them out.
