NFL Stats Guy Stops Spread of Propaganda Against Struggling Trevor Lawrence

A recent post on X (formerly Twitter) comparing Daniel Jones and Trevor Lawrence’s first 48 starts has stirred up quite a reaction from fans. Both quarterbacks, with only a two-year difference in NFL entry, reveal strikingly similar stats. Trevor Lawrence boasts a 20-28 W-L record, 85.5 pass rating, 55/35 Pass TD/INT, and 12,204 Pass+Rush Yds. Somehow, Daniel Jones also has remarkably similar stats of a 19-29 W-L record, an 85.4 pass rating, 55/33 Pass TD/INT, 11,992 Pass+Rush Yds, and the identical 6.7 Yards/Att.

The statistical proximity would prompt fans to consider that the perceived gap between the two quarterbacks is not that much. However, an X user, Tristan Duarte, a law student with an interest in advanced stats, provided a detailed breakdown for fans.

He highlighted the nuances that reveal the substantial differences within seemingly similar statistics between Trevor Lawrence and Daniel Jones in their first three seasons. Tristan pointed out key metrics where Lawrence outshines Jones, such as Adj. EPA/Play (.068 vs .014), EPA/Play (.054 vs -.011), Success rate (48.6% vs 44.7%), Comp % (64.9% vs 65.8%), CPOE (-.9 vs -1.8), and a notably lower Sack rate (5.1 to 21.33!).

In response to a fan expressing reservations about the stats being considered low for a generational talent, Tristan concurred that part of the perception of Trevor Lawrence’s struggling stems from the exceptionally high bar set for him when he was drafted into the league.

According to Tristan, Lawrence, despite facing a higher drop rate from his receivers (5.5% vs 4.7%), emerges as the superior quarterback. He urges fans not to overly rely on raw stats and asserts Lawrence’s consistent superiority over Jones.

Is Trevor Lawrence the Missing Piece of the Puzzle for the Jaguars?

The AFC South playoff race tightens as the Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston Texans, and Indianapolis Colts sit with 8-6 records. The Jaguars remain in contention despite recent setbacks in the form of Lawrence’s injury. Holding tiebreakers over competitors, clinching the fourth seed requires a triumphant 3-0 run.

The upcoming tests against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Carolina Panthers, and Tennessee Titans present a challenging yet plausible route to hosting the wild-card round. However, Trevor hasn’t been given the green light for the next game as of now.

Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson provided key updates on injured offensive players in his Wednesday press conference. Regarding quarterback Trevor Lawrence, Pederson stated he’s “progressing well” after a concussion in the last game.

While still in the concussion protocol, Lawrence needs continued improvement to potentially play against the Buccaneers. C.J. Beathard is poised to start in case he doesn’t get clearance. Whereas, wide receiver Zay Jones’ hamstring injury is “getting better,” but he’s considered week-to-week, indicating an ongoing cautious assessment by the team.

The Jaguars faced a challenging stretch with losses to Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Baltimore, showcasing concerning trends. Discipline becomes a focal point with 13 offensive penalties, including a league-high eight pre-snap penalties. Turnovers, particularly five by Lawrence in the past three weeks (three interceptions and two fumbles) have amplified challenges. The Jaguars must minimize self-inflicted obstacles to secure their position as the No. 1 seed.

The Jaguars maintain a 64.4% chance to clinch the division despite recent struggles, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI). The remaining opponents—Tampa, Carolina, and Tennessee—boast a combined 14-28 record, providing a favorable landscape. In contrast, rivals the Texans and Colts face tougher challenges, with opponents holding a 22-20 combined record.