Through six weeks of the 2025 NFL season, Baker Mayfield has done everything expected of an MVP candidate, and then some. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers sit at 5-1, Mayfield’s led four game-winning drives, and his command in clutch moments has redefined the narrative around him … shifting from brash to moxie. Yet, despite that resurgence, the MVP conversation continues to orbit around a familiar name: Patrick Mahomes.
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Oddsmakers have Mahomes as the frontrunner to win his third MVP, moving him ahead of both Mayfield and Josh Allen after the Chiefs’ 30-17 win over the Lions.
While the Chiefs are 3-3, Mahomes’ consistency and stat line … 1,514 yards, 11 TDs, 2 interceptions, and an 81.4 QBR … have pushed him to +185 in the revised MVP odds. Mayfield, even with a superior record (5-1) and stronger late-game heroics, trails at +350, while Allen sits at +300.
That said, statistically, the gap between Mahomes and Mayfield isn’t as wide as the odds suggest.
The Chiefs superstar leads the Chiefs in rushing yards (222), and while he’s elevated his offense despite missing Rashee Rice for six games and Xavier Worthy for multiple weeks, Mayfield has carried a banged-up Buccaneers unit without Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and rookie Emeka Egbuka for stretches.
Tampa Bay’s offense has still found ways to win, whether through improvisation, precision, or pure grit. And yet, the narrative hasn’t caught up to the numbers, something Emmanuel Acho finds impossible to ignore.
“The reason this is so shocking to me is because Baker Mayfield should currently be the front-runner for MVP,” said the analyst on Speakeasy.
“I fully understand what Patrick Mahomes has done with his team, but the fact still remains — the Kansas City Chiefs are sitting at 3-3. Baker Mayfield is sitting at 5-1,” he added.
Acho’s opinion carries weight because he isn’t just another ex-NFL player turned pundit. He’s one of 50 Associated Press members hand-selected as official MVP voters. And having faced backlash last year for voting Josh Allen over Lamar Jackson, his latest stance comes with added credibility.
“Baker Mayfield has led four game-winning touchdown drives. He’s beaten legitimate opponents. He’s won in every single way, form, and fashion,” Acho emphasized, before adding that even in Mayfield’s lone loss to the Eagles, he “kept his team alive and kept them fighting.”
So why isn’t the Bucs star the consensus favorite? Acho believes perception plays a bigger role than performance. “There’s a little bit of bias to it… We don’t see Baker Mayfield as an MVP. We can’t envision Baker Mayfield as an MVP. And as a result, people do not want to give Baker the benefit of the doubt,” he said.
Indeed, Acho makes a pointed observation. Mayfield is the most-bet MVP ticket at BetMGM since October 6, accounting for 46.3% of all bets, but the public confidence hasn’t shifted the narrative in his favor. Mahomes remains the bookmakers’ darling, buoyed by pedigree and name recognition.
But this is a big issue for if results, leadership, and resilience don’t put Mayfield atop the MVP race, then perhaps Acho is right. There’s a bias to it.
