UFC veteran Chael Sonnen had some interesting thoughts about Islam Makhchev’s manager Ali Abdelaziz claiming that the lightweight champion could move up to 205 lbs and defeat Alex Pereira. Pereira, who is a champion at 205 lbs is yet to be defeated in the division and has already defended his title thrice in 2024.
Sonnen claims that if this is not a pound-for-pound debate but an actual scenario where both fighters get on the scale and Islam weighs whatever he weighs on fight day, the idea that he can win isn’t too far-fetched.
“That isn’t as silly as you might think but the hardest guy to fight is always the guy smaller than you.”
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However, he then proposed some MMA math and claimed that if Islam can win against someone 3 weight classes above him and a world champion at that, then opponents who won rounds against him, like Arman Tsarukyan and Alexander Volkanovski, will also be able to have Pereira on the ropes.
“Now, Arman with Islam, I don’t know if he won a round or if he won two rounds. If we were to do MMA math, do you believe that Arman then could win minutes against Alex Pereira?… We are understanding that MMA math works, then you are pretty damn sure that Alexander Volkanovksi, a 145 pounder can beat Pereira. Come on. Is that what you are saying?”
Unfortunately, MMA math isn’t a real concept.
Why Sonnen’s MMA math logic doesn’t work
Back in February 2012, Dustin Poirier submitted Max Holloway with a triangle armbar for the win. Both fighters were fairly green at the time and this was their first encounter.
However, the two would meet again with the interim lightweight title on the line at UFC 236 in 2019. Holloway would put up a spirited performance but Poirier would again win by unanimous decision.
Holloway, who had been a lightweight champion previously, would then go on to have a few shaky fights, before making a splashy comeback with a BMF title win against Justin Gaethje at UFC 300. He would not only KO Gaethje in the final second of the fight, Holloway would actually just dominate him through all 5 rounds.
If MMA math was real, this would mean that Poirier, having beaten Holloway twice before and convincingly so, should have been able to get past Gaethje.
However, when the two fought at UFC 291, Gaethje would brutally finish Poirier with a head kick in a dominant fashion in Round 2. Funnily, enough when the two fought for the first time in April 2018 at a Fight Night, Gaethje would actually lose to Poirier after a spirited performance in Round 4.
See, how MMA math doesn’t make any sense here? This is just one example.
Alex Pereira beat Sean Strickland at UFC 276 and then lost to Israel Adesanya at UFC 287. Pereira would then leave the middleweight division and try out his luck in the light heavyweight division. Strickland, having lost to Pereira, would compete against Adesanya for the middleweight title at UFC 293 and win by unanimous decision.
So no, to assume that Tsarukyan or Volkanovski could actually move up to 205 lbs and win rounds against Pereira, is a bit too far-fetched. While Abdelaziz’s bold claims about Islam being able to do so rake in a few reactions, at the end of the day, it remains a boastful claim at its very best.
The only two reasons to put any stock into it are that Pereira has yet to fight a grappler of any kind, let alone Islam’s caliber and that the lightweight champion usually walks around at about 190 lbs before cutting weight. However, Tsarukyan is much smaller than him, and Volkanovski is a whole weight class smaller than both of them.
