MMA veteran Michael Chandler had to wait three long years for a chance at revenge. But when that moment came, reviving his rivalry with Charles Oliveira at UFC 309, he was frustrated once more by the Brazilian submission specialist. And UFC commentator Joe Rogan knows why.
In the first meeting between Chandler and Oliveira in 2021, ‘Iron Mike’ may have been too wary of Oliveira’s unmatched submission record – he currently holds the UFC record for most submission wins, with 16. Chandler fell instead to a brutal knockout, just 19 seconds into the second round.
In the rematch, Chandler went the distance with ‘Do Bronx’, weathering the storm of submissions and strikes before coming out to play in round four. Sadly, Chandler’s late surge wasn’t enough to convince the judges as he lost the fight with 49-46, 49-46, 49-45 scorecards all in Oliveira’s favor.
Speaking on his podcast, The Joe Rogan Experience, Rogan noted, “Oliveira was in real trouble in the third round of their last fight. And in real trouble in the first round of their first fight.”
“Chandler was this close to having that belt,” added Rogan’s guest, social media personality and archery enthusiast Cameron Hanes, recalling the 2021 title match between Chandler and Oliveira.
“This close in the first round, this close,” reiterated Rogan.
It was a clear pattern for Chandler, who is perhaps waning in the twilight of his career. In the two bouts with Oliveira, Chandler had good opportunities to snatch victory, enjoying periods of dominance.
While it’s often wise to strike at these brief windows of opportunity, they do often leave the fighter vulnerable to a counter, as Rogan points out.
“Maybe he just got a little overzealous in that fight in the second round,” the UFC commentator further suggested, referencing Chandler’s offensive burst before Oliveira knocked him out in the 2021 fight.
For Chandler, his excitement could be viewed as a blunder, especially in such an important fight. However, his enthusiastic approach could also have been born out of desperation.
Chandler: old dog without new tricks
A highly decorated fighter in Bellator, at the time of the 2021 Oliveira bout, Chandler had been without championship gold for two years. ‘Iron Mike’ was also seeking his first title since making the switch to the UFC.
The fight with Oliveira was Chandler’s first and last title match in the UFC, competing here for the vacant Lightweight Championship. It was an opportunity that slipped away, one now laced with regret and what-ifs.
Chandler would follow up that loss with a fighter whose approach to fighting is stylistically closest to his. And so he would go 5 rounds against Justin Gaethje at UFC 268 and only lose by a unanimous decision.
His next big challenge would present itself in the form of former champion Dustin Poirier. Both fighters would take their personal beef into the octagon at UFC 281.
But despite the fight being a strike fest, with Chandler dominating initial exchanges, he would succumb to the same mistakes he made during the first Oliveira fight.
An over-enthusiastic approach would once again prove too costly as Poirier would submit him with a real naked choke.
Fast forward to the present day, and Chandler is on a slide with just one win since that title match loss to Oliveira. With a 2-5 record, future title opportunities look unlikely for the American.
This would be followed by the Oliveira rematch, adding another L to the list. Chandler would have then hoped to have defeated surging prospect Paddy Pimblett to make a comeback into title contention, but according to Rogan, the English lightweight was never in any trouble whatsoever.
