McLaren started the 2024 season behind Ferrari and Red Bull in terms of performance. But the upgrades the team brought to Miami, changed the course of their campaign. McLaren began competing for race wins regularly, and won three Grand Prixs, including Lando Norris’ victory at Zandvoort last Sunday. It put the Woking-based outfit just 30 points behind Red Bull in the constructors’ championship standings, and journalist Patrick Iversen shared his thoughts on when they can overtake the Austrian team.
Iversen, via The Athletic, pointed out that it could happen by the United States GP. Before that, there would be three races for McLaren to build the advantage over Red Bull – Monza, Baku, and Singapore.
Based on previous performances, Iversen calculated that McLaren’s average rate of gain over the reigning champions is around 10 points per race. Three races, 30 points. If McLaren can maintain the output, they should get ahead of Red Bull during the race weekend in Austin.
Staggering how the F1 constructors’ fight has changed this year – McLaren is on pace to overtake Red Bull either in Singapore or Austin at its current rate of gains.
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However, F1 is an unpredictable sport. McLaren could lose some of its performance, or incidents on the track could prevent victories or cause DNFs, which would hand Red Bull a huge advantage.
Red Bull would be hoping for Sergio Perez to step up. The Mexican’s poor form has cost the team a lot of points so far, but with crunch time now upon, slip-ups could cost them dearly.
Norris meanwhile, also has his focus on the Drivers’ championship. After his Dutch GP win, he is just 70 points behind Max Verstappen in the standings, and with just nine races remaining this year, his battle is much tougher.
How Norris can defeat Verstappen
Verstappen still has a comfortable advantage over Norris at the top of the table. However, the fight is not over – at least mathematically. Iversen admitted that things don’t look too hopeful for Norris, but he still has a chance, provided he doesn’t lose a single race from now till the end of the season. He wrote,
“If Lando Norris wins all nine remaining races and sprints, takes five fastest lap points and Verstappen finishes second in each event, Norris becomes world champion … by one point.”
The margins are tight for Norris, but Red Bull too, cannot afford to make any mistakes for the remainder of the season. McLaren has the fastest car, and Norris will be the favorite to win in most races. But if Verstappen drops down below P2, or suffers a DNF due to reliability concerns or mistakes on the Dutchman’s end, their era of dominance would officially come to an end.
If Norris does catch Verstappen to win the championship, it would be one of the most remarkable turnarounds in F1 history.
