Consistently trailing by four to five-tenths of a second from the benchmark pace, Red Bull and Max Verstappen looked nowhere near the fight for pole—until qualifying began. Still, the four-time world champion delivered a masterclass around Suzuka to snatch pole by the barest of margins.
0.012 seconds was the gap between Verstappen and Lando Norris, who had provisional pole before the Red Bull driver came storming on his final Q3 run. And this materialized mainly due to Verstappen’s brilliance in extracting every ounce of performance from the RB21, which has been a super-tricky car to handle.
However, there was another factor that enabled him to bridge the four-tenths gap with McLaren’s pace and take his first pole since Austria last year. 1997 F1 champion Jacques Villeneuve shed light on the same, stating that Red Bull has put a low-downforce rear wing on Verstappen’s car.
“A lot of it has to do with the lower downforce rear wing. He got his car through the corners and had the top speed,” Villeneuve said to Sky Sports F1.
However, this puts Verstappen in a different predicament for Sunday’s Grand Prix if the heavens open up as per the rainy weather forecast.
A low downforce setup in wet track conditions isn’t ideal. So, no matter how well Verstappen can drive in the wet, he will have to tackle the lack of downforce in the wet, which may compromise his bid for a fourth consecutive victory around Suzuka.
WHAT A SESSION!
Max Verstappen. Take a bow.#F1 #JapaneseGP pic.twitter.com/w72EgQ5ICD
— Formula 1 (@F1) April 5, 2025
The narrow circuit is always notoriously difficult for overtaking. In the rain, it could further amplify with visibility being low. So, Verstappen will have to safeguard his track position from pole by having a good start.
Can Verstappen triumph in favorable conditions?
Even with a low-downforce setup, Verstappen has put himself in a brilliant position to win his first Grand Prix of 2025. Starting from pole in wet conditions at Suzuka—where he’s won for the past three seasons—it’ll be an uphill battle for the McLaren drivers to wrestle victory away from the Dutchman.
Norris starts second alongside Verstappen on the front row, while Oscar Piastri, in the other McLaren, lines up right behind the Red Bull in P3. Both drivers will be gunning to hassle the 27-year-old and snatch the lead early in the Grand Prix—and they need to.
Super Max #F1 #JapaneseGP pic.twitter.com/lGoJnvfOFJ
— Formula 1 (@F1) April 5, 2025
Because if Verstappen settles into a rhythm in that RB21 around Suzuka, he won’t give up the lead easily, no matter how quick the McLaren is. In that scenario, Norris and Piastri’s only hope would be a rare mistake from Verstappen or Red Bull that opens the door for an overtake.
That’s why strategy will be crucial for Verstappen—to capitalize on his pole position and the wet-weather advantage.
