Only two races into the 2025 season, and the F1 silly season has seemingly already kicked off. After two bitterly disappointing performances by Liam Lawson, it would appear that the Red Bull top brass has lost patience and faith in the Kiwi racing ace.
Reports emerging from the paddock suggest that Yuki Tsunoda is now firmly in line to take over the second Red Bull seat from Lawson as soon as the Japanese GP, which happens in two weeks. Tsunoda was given the snub by the Bulls in favor of Lawson during the winter break but the tables have now turned.
The #30 driver has failed to make it out of Q1 in three consecutive qualifying sessions and is yet to score points. While the RB21 not being easy to drive is a major factor behind Lawson’s miserable showing, Max Verstappen is carrying the team’s charge with 36 points under his belt, sitting second in the drivers’ standings.
However, Verstappen is Verstappen. He is the best in the business, and presumably, the Red Bull car is built around him. So, if the Milton Keynes-based team does decide to promote Tsunoda, would it really be the best choice for him?
History has dictated that the second Red Bull seat isn’t the easiest to keep hold of. In fact, since Daniel Ricciardo’s departure from the team at the end of 2018, only Sergio Perez has completed over two seasons of racing with the squad.
Red Bull to consider replacing driver Liam Lawson with Yuki Tsunoda after just two races of the new season pic.twitter.com/210Zlpx1QD
— Sky Sports F1 (@SkySportsF1) March 24, 2025
The likes of Alex Albon and Pierre Gasly couldn’t get to grips with the cars and were sacked prematurely—Gasly in half a season, Albon in one and a half season—a club that Lawson is now also in line to join. Interestingly, both these drivers faced difficulties in getting accustomed to the tricky Red Bull car during their stints.
So, is it the drivers that are the problem, or is there a deeper fundamental issue in Red Bull’s car development strategy? With many experts claiming that the latter seems to be the prevalent issue, there is no guarantee that Tsunoda would do any better than Lawson.
Nevertheless, it is unlikely that he would decline this promotion. Form-wise, Tsunoda has been performing quite well for the past two seasons at the Faenza-based outfit. Though, replicating the same form at Red Bull would be a completely different ballgame. As things stand, this could prove to be a pivotal point in his F1 career.
Tsunoda’s ambition and F1 future
Even if the Japanese driver can prove his mettle, he will require some time to get used to this unique concept which has an unnaturally strong front-end bite. Having said that, with Honda leaving the team at the end of the season, Tsunoda wouldn’t be getting too many opportunities to justify keeping the Red Bull seat for 2026 and beyond, unless he performs well.
The 24-year-old has been striving to get that Red Bull seat and was quite frustrated when Lawson got the nod ahead of him. While he is keen on securing his future at another team away from the Red Bull stable, Tsunoda still thinks he is capable of delivering on the Austrian outfit’s expectations and being Verstappen’s teammate.
On top of that, Honda’s departure to Aston Martin in 2026 means that a shot at the main Red Bull team is realistically the only viable avenue for the #22 driver to keep a racing seat for himself in 2026 and beyond.
No matter which way the pendulum swings, this season is going to be crucial in dictating whether or not we see Tsunoda in F1 for the years to come.
