With eight races left to secure a position in the NASCAR Cup playoffs, Bubba Wallace might as well be called ‘Bubble’ Wallace. The NASCAR standings say Wallace is in 13th position, with a 49-point edge over 16th-ranked Erik Jones, who technically is on the bubble.
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But looking at playoff eligibility, three drivers below Wallace in the standings — Austin Cindric (currently 15th heading into Sunday’s race in Chicago), Josh Berry (19th) and Shane Van Gisbergen (32nd) — have already secured automatic berths in the 10-race postseason with a race win each.
This is where it gets interesting. That puts Wallace virtually right on the bubble in 16th place in the overall playoff standings as opposed to the season standings to date. That’s why every point from here through the final regular season race at Daytona International Speedway on August 23 is absolutely crucial to his playoff hopes.
Wallace absolutely needs a good finish in Sunday’s street race in Chicago. The Alabama native has not won a Cup race since 2022, and this year has just three top-five and six top-10 finishes in the first 18 races.
But Wallace also has six DNFs, all due to crashes. He and best friend Ryan Blaney are tied for most DNFs this season, but Blaney has an automatic playoff berth by virtue of winning at Nashville last month.
The 23XI Racing driver also needs to bounce back from back-to-back poor performances in the last two races: Pocono (36th, crashed out) and Atlanta (22nd), which saw him drop from ninth in the season standings to 13th.
Some might say Wallace’s playoff hopes are dire. In his previous seven full-time seasons as a Cup driver, Wallace has made the playoffs just once: 2023, when he finished 10th. He came close to making the playoffs last season, but wound up short, finishing the season 18th.
Wallace’s teammates have had mixed seasons to date. Tyler Reddick is sixth in the standings while Riley Herbst has been virtually invisible this year, ranked 35th — second-lowest of all 36 full-time Cup drivers.
23XI Racing co-owner Denny Hamlin isn’t worried about Wallace
He may not be panicking about Wallace just yet, but 23XI co-owner and fellow Cup competitor Denny Hamlin is admittedly concerned about Wallace’s playoff chances.
“Yeah, he’s still in the playoffs after all those DNFs,” Hamlin admitted in Saturday’s media availability. “You just can’t panic in the situation that they’re in. I think if we were struggling for speed on the No. 23 car, then there would be a more heightened sense of alertness to what’s going on.
“A lot of these are just circumstances. Some of them are circumstances that we control, some of them are mechanicals we’ve controlled, some of them we have not. And others, it’s just other people making mistakes in front of him and he’s getting caught up in the middle of them.”
But Wallace, Hamlin and everyone else at 23XI know that statistically, Wallace is anything but secure in the overall playoff rankings. Coming into Sunday’s race, he is just 23 points ahead of 17th-ranked Ryan Preece, who has knocked on the winner’s door several times this year.
Then there’s Erik Jones, who is 49 points out of the playoffs (even though he is ranked 16th in the overall season standings coming into Chicago), AJ Allmendinger is -59 points and Carson Hocevar is -62.
If Wallace has a few more bad outings like he’s had recently, or if one or more other drivers earns a first win of the season in the next eight races, the playoff standings could quickly change — and not in Bubba’s favor, for sure.
Hamlin doesn’t have to worry about his own playoff hopes
Of course, Hamlin doesn’t have to worry about his own situation with Joe Gibbs Racing. He’s won three times this year and is ranked fourth, locked into the playoffs. Not bad for the oldest active full-time Cup driver.
“I think you have to stay the course and not panic and hope things play out the way that they should,” Hamlin added about Wallace. “If things play out naturally, he is certainly one of the fastest cars that is on that bubble.”
As a result, Hamlin is adamant about Wallace’s situation. “I’m not concerned about him racing his way into the playoffs,” Hamlin said. “I think that if he was 50 (points) behind at this point, I still would feel okay about it. Not great, but okay about it. But him being ahead with all the bad luck he’s had, I’m not too concerned, truthfully.”
