Does Joey Logano Have the Best Shot Among the Modern Era Drivers to Break Dale Earnhardt and Jimmie Johnson’s Cup Record?

Joey Logano is the only three-time Cup Series champion on the current list of active NASCAR drivers. So this ought to give him the best shot at becoming the driver most likely to tie or break the record for most championships in the Cup Series, right?

Maybe and maybe not. That’s because Richard Petty, Dale Earnhardt, and Jimmie Johnson, the current joint record holders with the maximum number of wins, have set the bar very, very high, indeed — a staggering seven Cup Series Championships each. Which leaves Logano with an almost superhuman challenge on hand.

Logano is currently 35 years old. He projects himself to race full-time for another nine seasons. This means he has to win a championship every 2.3 seasons from here on out to even tie the record. That’s a really tough ask, given how open the playoff format is. Even if it were possible, it would require him to perform at his peak when he is older.

In the past, it was easier for drivers to win consecutive titles, and it also happened pretty frequently. But that’s not the case now. There’s a lot more to being a multiple-time champion than just having the best crew or the best car. So no driver has been able to successfully defend their championship since Johnson last did in 2010.

How format changes skewed the odds and favored Logano in 2024

The current playoff format was introduced in 2014, making the game trickier for everyone. A lot is left to chance, and consistency throughout a season means little to nothing because of it.

Furthermore, stage racing was introduced in 2017, and the Next Gen came into the fold in 2022. All these additions have made sure that no single driver can dominate the field without getting stopped by some force.

NASCAR aimed to create the possibility for any team to enter a race and win. It has achieved that goal to some measure. Logano himself is the best example of this. He was in no way a challenger for the title in 2024. His performances weren’t up to the mark, and he did not display the caliber of a champion. And yet, it was he who got crowned at the end of the year.

The reason was that he won at the right place and at the right time. This resulted in far more deserving drivers losing out. What casts huge doubt on Logano’s chances of being a seven-time champion is this, precisely. He could be the most deserving driver to win the championship in a year and still not win it.

What all this essentially translates to is that it is next to impossible to reach the mark set by Petty, Earnhardt, and Johnson. Only time can tell if Logano can combine his racing abilities with extraordinary luck and go down in history as one of the greatest drivers to ever race in NASCAR.