Is the Most Dominant Driver Not Winning NASCAR Races a Problem in the Cup Series?

Unpredictability is the key factor in building excitement for any racing event. The feeling of not knowing who is going to win until the last lap is what grips the attention of the fans and holds them to the edge of their seats. Unfortunately, this isn’t always the case for some of the popular forms of motorsports. Take Formula 1 for example. The series is notorious for yielding a dominant driver who takes the pole and leads almost every lap to victory. Plus knowing how one driver or car would be superior to the rest of the grid, the winner is easily predictable, hence killing the anticipation that someone else could snatch the win at some point.

Back in NASCAR, things are vastly different. More often than not there have been cases where the driver who leads the most number of laps does not end up winning the race. In fact, due to the sheer nature of completion and constant unpredictability of what may happen next, even the underdogs can grab the win.

Just looking at the stats of the last 100 races where the drivers won the race after leading most of the laps, Formula 1 tops the chart with a solid 83 times. IndyCar comes next at 61, followed by Xfinity and Truck Series at 47. Interestingly, there have only been 39 occasions in the same period where a NASCAR Cup Series driver both dominated for most of the race and went on to claim the victory as well.

How often does the driver that leads the most laps win the race?

Well, over the last 100 races: pic.twitter.com/UhVaWXaTGc

— Trey Ryan (@TreyRyan99) March 2, 2024

Does this make NASCAR a better sport for the fans than the others?

Since most fans are attracted to the drama on the race track and the intense battles that take place throughout the race, one could argue that the unpredictable nature of racing provided by NASCAR makes things far more interesting. But this doesn’t mean that other racing series aren’t something to be excited about.

Sure the last couple of years, Formula 1 has seen Red Bull Racing’s Max Verstappen dominate on the race track. Things have gone to the point that one may be able to guess the outcome of an entire season even before it has started. But despite the snore-fest at the top of the field, plenty of interesting battles take place throughout the midfield and other spheres within the sport.

However, at the end of the day for any sport to be intriguing it needs to hold some degree of unpredictability, where there is no guarantee that the driver up front will end up winning the race. A sport where even the forgotten ones have a shot at glory. That is what creates storylines and that is what builds the very foundation of a sport.