Chase Elliott enters Martinsville at the tail end of the Round of 8 standings, 62 points below the cutline. However, if there’s one track where he can turn his fortunes around, it’s the 0.526-mile speedway, which happens to be NASCAR’s oldest and most iconic short track.
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Martinsville has long been Elliott’s stronghold. He won there in 2020 and holds an 11.7 average finish on the paperclip-shaped circuit. He almost made it to the Championship 4 last season at the very venue.
In 2024, Elliott looked ready to punch his ticket to the finale in the penultimate race of the season. He won Stage 1 at Martinsville and led 129 laps, second only to Brad Keselowski’s 170. He was poised to push for victory, but Ryan Blaney stole the lead on Lap 486 of 500 and won by 2.593 seconds.
Elliott crossed the line second, got eliminated from playoff contention alongside teammate and third-place finisher Kyle Larson. He wrapped up the 2024 season seventh in points. That narrow miss notwithstanding, the #9 HMS driver’s consistency at Martinsville remains undeniable.
Three straight top-five finishes in the last three races speak for themselves. Yet, as Jamie McMurray noted, predicting how Elliott will perform is like reading smoke. Unlike emotional racers such as Denny Hamlin, Elliott keeps his cards hidden.
That’s why when Steve Letarte said on Inside the Race, “I don’t think it’s crazy to think Chase Elliott could win,” McMurray chose not to commit, replying, “He’s the hardest guy in the whole series, I think, to predict how they’re going to do.”
Letarte then described Elliott as a racer. “You get nothing from [his] emotion. But I also just look at the way their season has been, and I feel like about the time you count them out, they come back and they have a spectacular run,” he said.
“So, Chase is the hardest one for me. He could go, and he could win this weekend, or they could just have an average day. He wouldn’t be on my list, though, of the guy. To me, it’s more of a Blaney that’s below that cut line,” added Letarte.
For Elliott, the math is simple but brutal. Even if he sweeps both stages, he can’t advance on points alone. It’s a win-or-bust situation for the No. 9 Hendrick Motorsports team.
Elliott’s qualifying effort could make all the difference. Historically, he has started mostly in the top 10 at Martinsville, and this time, a front-row start might be the edge he needs to keep his championship hopes alive.
