One of the most exciting sports events of the year is only a few weeks away from kicking off: March Madness. The annual NCAA extravaganza pits 68 college teams against one another in a massive single-game elimination tournament, with the winner crowing themselves the country’s National Champion.
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March Madness is not only one of the most-watched sporting events of the year but one that garners heavy betting interest. Millions of fans, analysts, and everyone in between rush to pick their brackets to determine what teams will advance and what teams will be going home. Picking the right winners can mean a cool payday for you at the sportsbook, or just fill you with immense pride at your NCAA knowledge.
But has anyone ever picked a perfect bracket? People will study for weeks and do in-depth analysis on teams to aim at this goal, but in 85 years no one has accomplished this near-impossible feat. The oddsmakers list a perfect March Madness bracket at 1 in 9.2 quintillion. ESPN reports that those numbers drop to 1 in 120 billion once the favored teams are factored in, giving a bettor slightly greater odds. Slightly.
However, these slightly improved odds take a major hit when we see Cinderella stories. Stephen Curry‘s 2008 Davidson team was one of them. Coming in as the 10th seed, they took down the No. 7 Gonzaga Bulldogs, No. 2 Georgetown Hoyas, and No. 3 Wisconsin Badgers, before falling to the No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks in Elite Eight.
Similarly, even a first-round upset by a lower-seeded team, like we saw No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson and No. 15 Princeton pull off in 2023, often destroys the majority of the brackets right away.
An Ohio man did get very close to a perfect bracket in 2019
In 2019, a man named Gregg Nigl came as close as anyone has ever come to a perfect March Madness bracket. The neuropsychologist from Columbus, Ohio picked the first 49 games correctly. This made him the first ever person to record a perfect bracket all the way through to Sweet Sixteen. Eventually, it was an overtime loss by Tennessee that stopped him from recording 50 straight.
This means that he picked the first 80% correctly, a feat that ESPN determined were the same odds as winning the Powerball…twice.
Nigl did get some major recognition for his accomplishments. The NCAA had contacted him as his bracket was widely tracked — leading the Ohio native toward a ton of media opportunities that left as quickly as they came. Regardless, Nigl came closer than anyone had ever come before.
But you know what they say? You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take. Maybe this year will be that 1 in 9.2 quintillion.
