Forrest Gump once famously said that life is like a box of chocolates, you never know what you’re gonna get. That’s what it feels like watching the Lakers play basketball this season. Over 60% of the time, they win. In most of their other games, not only do they lose, they lose big.
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When it comes to the Lakers, it is important to separate the narrative from reality… Because Lord knows, this is a team that is never short on narrative. Just recently, there have been widely held discussions on whether Luka Doncic and JJ Redick hate each other, and whether Luka and his constant complaining to the refs are holding the team back.
LeBron James has created his own cottage industry for narratives throughout his career. And now that he’s nearing the end of the road, on the most famous team in the NBA, no less, he’s been a permanent resident in the rumor mill.
Will he retire after this year? Will he keep playing but leave the Lakers? Do he and Jeanie Buss actually have issues? The questions go on and on. On the most recent episode of the Open Floor podcast, Chris Mannix and Rachel Nichols attempted to cut through all the noise surrounding LeBron and the Lakers.
They attempted to get to the heart of what the data says. And in short, it’s not pretty for the future Hall of Famer.
“This is an insane debate. I don’t think it is a debate. Of course, the Lakers are better without LeBron James,” Mannix said.
“And I’ll just couch this by saying this is not saying LeBron’s bad, or not saying LeBron’s washed, or not saying LeBron can’t play NBA basketball beyond this season, because that is equally ridiculous. He is equally capable of playing at 41, almost 42 years old, at an All-Star, All-NBA level,” he argued.
“If you’re gonna make the argument that the Lakers are not better without LeBron James, you are not looking at the numbers!” Mannix continued. “We are almost 3/4 of the way through the season, and the numbers speak for themselves.”
Mannix then went on to show that without LeBron, the Lakers are 13-7. When Luka and Austin Reaves are in the lineup together without LeBron, they’re 9-2. “Contrast that with the three-man lineup of LeBron, Luka, and Austin Reaves, which is freaking terrible,” said Mannix.
“It is so bad. The three-man lineup of Luka, Reaves, and LeBron has a net rating of -1.1, with a 109.3 offensive rating, which would be the second-worst offensive rating in the NBA, only behind Indiana, which is not trying to win games,” he added.
The numbers tell a pretty clear story. And Nichols gave the Lakers’ situation even more clarity with her explanation. “I think the reason people push back on what you’re saying, even though you made the qualifier you did, they don’t hear it,” she said to Mannix.
The qualifier is [that] LeBron is still a great player, and by the way, could absolutely be a part of a championship team. But what LeBron is not anymore is that immortal designation … The NBA is about fit,” she explained.
“The top 10% of the players doesn’t matter where they play; they can propel the team up. The bottom 10% of the players, they’re gonna be crappy no matter what team they are, but the 80% in the middle, it is about fit,” added Nichols, who still said that LeBron is in the top 25% or so of players in the league.
However, he’s no longer among the top 10% that can succeed in any situation. The redundancy between his offensive game and Luka’s, and the lack of defense in the Luka-LeBron-Reaves lineups, just make the Lakers a bad fit for his talents.
LeBron has missed the last three games with elbow and foot injuries. And the Lakers have responded by playing some of their best basketball of the season to beat the Pacers, Knicks, and the Wolves by a combined 38 points.
It’s stunning that one of the best players of all time, who is still putting up big numbers when he plays, actually helps the team more when he’s off the court. The numbers don’t lie, though, and by this point, it’s not a small sample size.
The Lakers are never going to bench LeBron. But JJ Redick needs to fine-tune his lineups, while LeBron needs to adjust his game to find something that works before the postseason gets here. Otherwise, the Lakers are looking at another early exit before getting a fresh start next year.
