Patrick Mahomes has led the Kansas City Chiefs on one of the most dominant runs in NFL history since becoming a full-time starter in 2018. They’ve made the AFC Championship game in all eight years, appeared in five Super Bowls, and won three. However, that domination pales in comparison to the grip they’ve had on the AFC West over the past decade, stretching back well before the Mahomes era.
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After the 2015 season, the Chiefs were last among the four teams in all-time division titles, with just nine. They have won the AFC West crown every single year since then—the second-longest such streak ever, behind the New England Patriots‘ 11-year run from 2009 to 2019.
Kansas City is now first in the AFC West when it comes to division titles, with 17 all-time. However, one Los Angeles Chargers legend believes the jig will be up in 2025.
Shawne Merriman was a menace for the Chargers back in the mid-2000s when they were based in San Diego. He knows a little something about winning the AFC West too, having done so in four straight seasons from 2006 to 2009. The Chiefs are once again the odds-on favorites to win the division, according to oddsmakers. But Merriman says, not so fast.
“I truthfully believe they’re going to win the division this year. I really feel that way. I don’t wanna take anything away from Patrick Mahomes and that team… but truthfully, where the Chargers are at and the jump that they made—remember before the season started last year, nobody saw the Chargers even being a playoff team,” said the former linebacker.
“That was the exact same team, almost, minus Keenan Allen and some of these other guys, that Jim Harbaugh took over!” Merriman added.
The Chargers had a massive bump last year after adding Jim Harbaugh as head coach. They went from 5-12 in 2023 to 11-6 in 2024, with, as Merriman pointed out, very limited roster changes.
Now that Harbaugh has had a year to recruit the guys he wants, such as RB Najee Harris, C Andre James, G Mekhi Becton, and early draft picks RB Omarion Hampton and WR Tre Harris—and get everyone settled into the playbook, more progression from this young team in 2025 makes sense.
“Nobody saw them going to the playoffs. So if he’s able to do that in one year’s time, what are they gonna be looking like this year with a full year under their belt? New guys, the coaching staff, everybody understands the system now. So if you don’t think that they’re gonna win the division… you know it’s just crazy to say they’re not the best team in the AFC West right now.”
However, the fact that they came out of nowhere last year might have actually helped them. They’ll be playing a second-place schedule this year, and teams will be more well-prepared than they were for a 5-12 team with a brand new head coach in 2024.
The fact that Merriman has been this confident about the Chargers in previous seasons has resulted in a ‘boy who cried wolf’ dynamic between him and the fans, however. “He said the same thing last year, at some point you gotta stop taking these senior citizens serious,” one fan said.
Others believe they won’t even finish ahead of the Broncos: “People have been saying this for over 10 years, who knows, maybe one day they might be right. It is the annual trendy thing to say. I don’t think the Chargers will finish ahead of the Broncos.”
Others seemed exasperated, “Wash, rinse, repeat. Sigh.,” or simply tried to find some humor in the situation, “Makes sense, the season hasn’t started yet, so the Chargers should still win the Super Bowl.”
Wash, rinse, repeat. Sigh.
— 3PETE (@SD3pete) May 5, 2025
As it stands now, the Chiefs are -120 odds favorites to win their division. That means they are far from certain to make it 10 in a row. Those odds are longer than those for the Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens, and Philadelphia Eagles to win their divisions.
The Chargers check in second in the AFC West odds table at +330. The Denver Broncos follow close behind at +340, and the Las Vegas Raiders bring up the rear at +1,100.
