Ex-NFL Scout Explains Why Fernando Mendoza May Have a Shock Draft Fall Like Shedeur Sanders

Fernando Mendoza is widely regarded as a future first overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft, especially after his Heisman campaign at Indiana. But not every scout is as high on him. In fact, a former NFL scout recently revealed that he had Mendoza graded as a fourth-round pick.

It’s a stunning revelation. After all, Mendoza dominated the college scene all year at Indiana following his move from Cal. But according to former New York Jets scout Daniel Kelly, Mendoza is an immobile, system quarterback.

“He’s a stiff, rigid, awkward, systematic quarterback,” Kelly stated via Fearless with Jason Whitlock. “Everything he does is systematic… He works out of the pocket from his spot, almost like a statue. That’s the first problem.”

Kelly also mentioned that Mendoza still operates with a clap-snap cadence. While that has become more common in college for players like Caleb Williams and Jaxson Dart, NFL teams rely on verbal snap counts, which could present an adjustment challenge for Mendoza.

Furthermore, Kelly believes Mendoza doesn’t have the ability to read a defense. 

“I really question if he can read defenses that well. Because when you watch him on film, he looks like he knows where he’s going with the ball before it’s even snapped,” Kelly noted. “He’s a predetermined 1 to 2 progression thrower, going into a league where you have to read defenses. That’s a huge concern.”

The NFL has evolved from fixed defensive schemes to disguised looks in recent seasons. Instead of showing their true formation pre-snap, defenses often present a different look altogether to mask their coverage. The goal is to confuse opposing QBs, especially those who rely heavily on pre-snap adjustments.

If Mendoza can’t evolve into a quarterback who consistently reads opposing defenses, he likely won’t last long in the NFL. That said, it doesn’t mean the team that drafts him won’t at least give him a chance to develop that skill.

Finally, Kelly has real concerns about Mendoza’s arm talent. 

“He’s really an elementary route thrower. 80-90% or 70% of throws, whatever it may be, he’s throwing it to the outside… He loves to make the throws that allow him to have the most leverage on the routes. It’s a lot of quick throws to the outside, quick hitches, bubble screens, or he’s going with the inside slant, or he’s going deep,” Kelly concluded.

Insane: Former New York Jets scout Daniel Kelly says he has a 4TH-ROUND GRADE on Indiana star QB Fernando Mendoza…

“He’s a stiff and rigid, awkward, systematic quarterback. He’s an elementary route thrower. He doesn’t read defences that well.”

pic.twitter.com/AwwEG0d4rY

— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) January 8, 2026

If NFL teams notice these troubling patterns while scouting Mendoza, then he could certainly see his draft stock fall. It would be similar to Shedeur Sanders, who everyone expected to go in the first round last year. But instead, he fell to the fifth round.

Here’s the thing, though: this draft class is much weaker than last year’s. Then, the top of the draft was loaded with talent in the first round. This made it much easier for teams to bypass Shedeur, who wasn’t even viewed as the best QB in his class. 

Mendoza, on the other hand, is viewed as the best QB in his class, and by a lot. The next best QB prospect is Dante Moore out of Oregon. But while he’s viewed as an exciting prospect with potential, he hasn’t even declared for the draft. After Moore, Ty Simpson out of Alabama is projected as a late first or second-round pick, who Mendoza just outdueled in the Rose Bowl.

With all of this in mind, it would be shocking to see something change in Mendoza’s draft stock as we approach April. He may not be a perfect QB prospect, but he certainly seems like the best of this upcoming bunch. Whether that means he can turn around a franchise like the Las Vegas Raiders, though, is an entirely different question.