Tua Tagovailoa has been stuck in a make-or-break situation for the past couple of years. Ever since Mike McDaniel took over as head coach, big things have been expected from the QB. But sandwiched between a semi-successful 2023 campaign are two mediocre ones in ’22 and ’24. It has us — and Redditors — wondering if the former 5th overall pick will ever break out.
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Tua has, so far, only shown flashes of brilliance in Miami. He can make throws with pinpoint precision and demonstrates a strong sense of anticipation and timing. Terron Armstead agrees and then some.
Since his arrival in 2022, Armstead says he’s seen a lot of potential in Tua — so much so that he recently spoke about how he believes the quarterback could be as good as one of his former teammates. He was talking about none other than Drew Brees.
“I see similarities. I’m not saying they’re the same player or same person, no two people are. The anticipation, the accuracy, timing of throws, the ability to knock a wing off a fly repeatedly. Those guys throw darts,” Armstead said on The Rich Eisen Show.
“They don’t throw to areas; they are very precise. And that’s an elite talent, it’s an elite trait. Very few people possess (it). He’s one of them, and Drew Brees is another,” he added.
It’s high praise coming from the five-time Pro Bowler. However, there have been two noticeable issues with Tua’s game heading into Year 6: his consistency and durability. It seems like every time Tua appears to make progress in his skill set, he reverts to who he was before — a two-steps-forward, one-step-back kind of deal.
Furthermore, scary head injuries have kept him off the field at various times in 2021, ’22, and ’23. There was even a point when fans called for him to consider retirement. So, after all the praise, Armstead also had a few things to say about the challenges Tua will face next season.
“Yeah, he has narratives in front of him that have to be answered,” Armstead said. “Not necessarily by me or in an interview form, it’s from him, and his play, and getting the job done. Any quarterback or any team that (doesn’t) hoist that trophy at the end of the year, you have questions, you have narratives, you have challenges, you have adversity, you have things to answer.”
NFL fans on Reddit agreed with Armstead to an extent, but also pointed out what they see as the real issue: “Feel like the guy has been stuck in a ‘make or break’ Groundhog Day scenario.”
“He’s just good enough to where it’s not easy to replace him, but not good enough to do anything,” someone else responded.
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These comments led others to share their thoughts on Tua. Some felt he would be remembered as an average player, drawing parallels to Kirk Cousins. They pointed out that, like the Falcons QB, Tua has the skill set, just not the intangibles.
“He’s more than just good enough; he’s legitimately really good a lot of the time, but his health and clutch factor aren’t up to snuff. He’s Kirk Cousins with more injury problems,” one argued.
“He is really good against meh teams. Against better teams, he just doesn’t have that next gear to put the team over the top. Even a fully healthy Tua wouldn’t be enough to make the Dolphins a consistent contender in the AFC,” another responded.
Perhaps no better example of this came in 2023. The Dolphins finished the season 11–6, and Tua led the league in passing yards. But because they lost both games against the Buffalo Bills, who also finished 11–6, Buffalo won the tiebreaker.
And Miami’s reward for its best regular-season record since 2008 was a road matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs in January. It ended up being -27 degrees with the wind chill, and the Dolphins were trounced 26–7.
All the more reason it does feel like another make-or-break season for Tua and the Dolphins. But the reality is, it most likely isn’t. The next potential out in his contract is after 2026. Additionally, Miami extended McDaniel’s contract through 2028. So, it seems like they have at least two more bites at the apple, if not three, or four at most.
Arguably, something needs to change in terms of team structure for Tua to avoid the same fate as Cousins. Whether that means favoring less expensive receivers or investing more in offensive line protection, something’s got to give.
