‘History Tells Us JJ McCarthy Is a Bust’: Mike Florio Explains Why Aaron Rodgers to Vikings Is Still in Play

Aaron Rodgers’ free agency saga has been predictably entertaining. He missed his chance with 95 percent of the teams by waiting through the first week of free agency. He was then left with three teams he didn’t much fancy, so he tried to get the Minnesota Vikings interested in his services.

Reports said Rodgers would wait and keep those other teams (Giants and Steelers) in limbo until the Vikings made a decision on whether they wanted to bring in the 41-year-old. However, earlier this week, Tom Pelissero reported that Minnesota is not pursuing Rodgers at this time, and that they were rejecting any trade calls about youngster J.J. McCarthy, whom they want as their QB1.

Despite that clear update, NFL pundits refuse to let it go. ESPN’s Kevin Seifert has been spinning yarns about the Vikings possibly revisiting a trade for the four-time MVP. And now, NBC’s top NFL analyst, Mike Florio, is fanning the flames of a Rodgers-to-Vikings scenario.

According to the analyst, the odds and history are against McCarthy becoming a stud, which is why he believes Minnesota will go back to Rodgers.

“There’s never a six-for-six hit on quarterbacks in the NFL Draft in the Top 12,” Florio started confidently.

And his co-host, Chris Simms, chimed in, “Right now, it looks like it’s five for five, you’ve gotta be the sixth there.”

Florio then doubled down, “History tells us you’re the bust, so you better go out and show that you’re not. And now there’s this vague possibility of Aaron Rodgers hanging out there. Now I understand why he’s waiting. It makes sense. I think it makes sense.”

It was a strangely aggressive diatribe from Florio, as he directed his words squarely at McCarthy. The argument itself is a bit odd as well. After just one season, are we really ready to declare all five rookie QBs definite successes?

Michael Penix Jr. started three games and threw as many touchdowns as interceptions. The Atlanta Falcons aren’t letting Kirk Cousins go either, so if they’re not completely sold on Penix, why should we be?

Drake Maye and Caleb Williams both flashed potential only against bad teams, so they’re far from certified playmakers after one uneven season. Only Bo Nix and Jayden Daniels look like they’re going to be solid players or stars. With all of that in mind, there’s lots of space for McCarthy to slot in ahead of a couple of these guys.

No rookie first-round QB has ever missed their entire rookie season to injury like McCarthy did last season. So, if anything, history is not against McCarthy, and the young QB is carving out his own path.

Florio and Simms also compared their imagined McCarthy-Rodgers scenario to the Brett Favre-Tarvaris Jackson situation in 2009. Florio is usually a go-to guy for NFL history, so the oversights he made to force this comparison were jarring.

In 2009, Jackson had been in the league for three years already. He was a late-round prospect coming out of Alabama State in 2006. The Vikings shocked everyone by trading up to draft him in the second round, despite the QB having sixth or seventh round grades in most places. He started most of the 2007 season, and the Vikings won despite him.

However, he always struggled with turnovers, and he was benched early in the 2008 season. So, when Favre came in during the 2009 offseason, it was a choice between a future Hall of Famer or a guy who’d been benched the previous season and thrown 18 INTs in 25 career games to that point. Pretty easy decision, right?

Now, compare Jackson’s situation with McCarthy’s. A QB who was drafted 10th overall out of a blue-blood program like Michigan that had just lifted the National Title trophy. Not to mention that, unlike Jackson, McCarthy has not done anything to cause his teammates’ confidence in him to waver. In fact, in his limited preseason action, he really impressed.

People like Florio are grasping at straws to keep Rodgers’ name in the news cycle. But, barring a major injury to McCarthy, this story seems to be dead. We wouldn’t be surprised to see someone like Joe Flacco signed by Minnesota soon just to end all possibilities of debate on the matter.

In the meantime, the New York Giants, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Russell Wilson all wait patiently for Rodgers to make his final decision.