“I Don’t Think They’ll Make the Playoffs”: Analyst Sounds Off on the Steelers Amid Aaron Rodgers’ Silence

The Pittsburgh Steelers have had just three head coaches since 1969. Over those 56 years, they’ve posted a losing record only 10 times. Legendary leader Chuck Noll’s first three seasons represent 30% of those occurrences. They’ve also not finished worse than .500 even once in Mike Tomlin’s 18-year tenure. By and large, they’re the NFL’s model of consistency.

Lately, though, that consistency has become mediocre at best. Pittsburgh hasn’t won a playoff game in nearly a decade (Jan. 15, 2017). And the Steelers’ regular season point differential has been negative in four of the past six campaigns. Unlike their division rival Baltimore Ravens, it’s not as if they’ve choked in the postseason. To a degree, merely getting there has been considered a miracle.

If Tomlin is to work his supposed “devil magic” again in 2026, he’s probably going to need Aaron Rodgers. It’s hard to compete in the AFC without elite quarterback play, and contention will be more difficult if T.J. Watt’s contract situation isn’t sorted out. Regardless, Paul Pierce doesn’t see 2025 being successful for Pittsburgh.

On Monday’s episode of Speak, he predicted the Steelers wouldn’t return to the postseason.

“This is not going to end well for nobody. I don’t think they’re going to be that good [because of] chemistry issues. The writing’s on the wall for Pittsburgh. I don’t think they make the playoffs,” he said. 

Pierce’s declaration isn’t as scorching as it may seem. The Baltimore Ravens demonstrated last January that they’re a level above the Steelers. And it’s hard to imagine the Cincinnati Bengals’ defense will be much worse than it was in 2024, even if Trey Hendrickson, fighting for a new contract like Watt, doesn’t play. And that’s assuming Rodgers does eventually join the team instead of retiring or going elsewhere.

Should Pittsburgh go all-in… on a rebuild?

Civil rights activist and writer Rita Mae Brown bestowed a well-known phrase – often attributed to Albert Einstein – upon the world with her book, Sudden Death. In it, Brown claims that “insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.” The New Orleans Saints’ approach to team building stands out as an embodiment of this thought, but the Steelers’ recent history does, too.

For years, Watt and Pittsburgh’s other defensive stars have had to carry the load in the Steel City. To say the offense has underwhelmed over the same period would be an understatement. Since 2019, the Steelers’ offense has ranked roughly bottom 12 in points per game four times. Meanwhile, the defense has ranked top 10 in points per game allowed five times.

• 2019 – PPG: 27th, PA/G: 5th
• 2020 – PPG: 12th, PA/G: 3rd
• 2021 – PPG: 20th, PA/G: 20th
• 2022 – PPG: 26th, PA/G: 10th
• 2023 – PPG: 28th, PA/G: 6th
• 2024 – PPG: 16th, PA/G: 8th

Any consistent offensive production, assuming the defense holds up, could spark a deep playoff run in 2025. But the Steelers haven’t improved offensively. Trading for D.K. Metcalf looked like a step in the right direction, but dealing George Pickens away effectively canceled it out. And Rodgers’ presence, as the New York Jets learned, doesn’t guarantee victories at this stage of his career.

Barring significant developments, 2025 is shaping up to be another year of quality defense and subpar offense in Pittsburgh. If that’s the case, it’s possible — maybe even likely — that the Steelers finish above .500 again. But keeping a streak of winning records alive just to get blown out in the playoffs doesn’t line up with their long-term history. They’re supposed to be competing for Super Bowls, not wildcard spots.

The worst place to reside in the NFL is the middle. You’re too bad to be a real threat for championships, but too good to land a real blue-chip prospect in the NFL Draft. Pittsburgh has been in that purgatory for a long time. If the franchise wants to hoist a Lombardi Trophy anytime soon, it’d be wise to bite the bullet and focus on the future.