Things can change quickly in the NFL. If you don’t stop and look around at the league’s landscape this time of year, you might miss something. Today alone, we’ve seen Davante Adams join the Los Angeles Rams and D.K. Metcalf get traded to the Pittsburgh Steelers. We’ll see even more player movement tomorrow, when the league’s legal tampering period—the precursor to free agency—begins.
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While the Rams and Steelers made headline-worthy additions, the Buffalo Bills went in other directions on Sunday. After releasing future Hall of Fame edge rusher Von Miller, they signed quarterback Josh Allen to a massive contract extension. Allen now holds the NFL record for most guaranteed money ($250 million) on one deal.
Deshaun Watson’s previous record-high total ($230 million) was supplied in 2022. It took three years for someone to top his mark, but with the salary cap continuing to climb, Allen will probably slip to second in less time.
One quick look at the QB payday hierarchy gives us two candidates for topping Allen: Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. Both, for different reasons, stand together as the most likely to break Allen’s record. But which, between the two, should be in the pole position?
Jackson, 28, has done nothing but dominate since becoming the Baltimore Ravens’ starting quarterback in Week 10 of the 2018 campaign. He carried the Ravens to a division title in relief of Joe Flacco that season, and has captured three more AFC North crowns since then.
In the regular season, Jackson’s production has been second to none. He has won two MVP awards (2019, 2023) and been the first-team All-Pro quarterback three times (2019, 2023, 2024). Yes, Jackson’s postseason record (3-5) leaves a lot to be desired. And, like Allen, he has yet to reach the Super Bowl. Regardless, he’s undeniably one of the league’s best signal-callers.
Jackson currently sits ninth in average annual value (AAV) on his active contract, making $52.5 million per year. He, at worst, is a top five quarterback. He’s also the only signal-caller with a top-11 AAV whose deal expires before the 2028 season. He, in theory, is next up on the docket for a new contract.
These record-setting contracts usually come in succession of one another. By having fewer years left on his existing deal than other quarterbacks of his caliber, Jackson has the upper hand on surpassing Allen’s guarantee. And unless his play – or modern salary cap trends – significantly drop off, he’ll become the new leader in the guaranteed-money clubhouse.
Could Patrick Mahomes top Josh Allen’s record-high guarantee?
Knowing Jackson has the league’s ninth-highest AAV, would you guess Mahomes – a legitimate GOAT candidate – makes more or less money than him? If you guessed more, you’d be incorrect. Mahomes actually ranks 13th in AAV among quarterbacks. Kyler Murray ($46.1 million) rakes in a higher salary than Mahomes ($45 million), who pulls the same amount as Kirk Cousins.
Nobody can logically conclude Murray is a better quarterback than Mahomes, or that Cousins is on his level. However, Mahomes’ current contract was signed in 2020. His 10-year, $450 million pact is the largest deal (by total value) in NFL history.
Mahomes could decide he wants a raise at any time. The Kansas City Chiefs would surely oblige his potential demands; letting their three-time Super Bowl champion leave the franchise is unfathomable.
If you don’t consider Mahomes to be the NFL’s best quarterback, he’s undoubtedly its most accomplished active signal-caller. And if he decides to chase Allen’s guarantee, he will get it.
Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson will always rank among the highest-earning quarterbacks during their playing days. When their careers are done, they won’t care about holding the league’s record for guaranteed money. He and Jackson are concerned with just one thing: winning Lombardi Trophies.
Mahomes needs more rings to chase down Tom Brady as the league’s GOAT. Meanwhile, a Super Bowl title is the only accomplishment missing from Jackson’s resume. Having already earned generational wealth, neither man is likely to prioritize money over those aspirations moving forward. The more their organizations can spread their funds, the better chances they’ll have of capturing championships.
There’s simply no need for Mahomes or Jackson to break Allen’s record. So who, if anyone, could realistically do so?
The quarterback who will top Josh Allen’s record-high guarantee is…
Jayden Daniels.
Washington’s second-year quarterback – the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year – has, alongside a new ownership group and front office, sparked a massive turnaround of the Commanders’ fortunes. Until Daniels took Washington to the NFC Championship in 2024, the last time the franchise appeared in a conference championship game was 1991.
The Commanders (4-13) were the second-worst team in the NFL in 2023. Daniels, by 2025 NFL Draft position, made them the second-best team in the NFC less than a year later. He’s a 24-year-old budding superstar who becomes extension-eligible in 2027. He’ll be 26 at that time. Jackson will be 30, and Mahomes will be 31.
No, turning 30 in this era isn’t the same as turning 30 in the mid-2000s. However, the Ravens and Chiefs would likely hesitate on handing Jackson and Mahomes contracts long enough to vault them above Allen in total guarantees. The Commanders will have no such concerns with Daniels.
Washington’s fans felt they had finally secured a franchise quarterback when Robert Griffin III set the NFL on fire in 2012. Unfortunately, injuries plagued him throughout the back half of that season and the rest of his career. Daniels, though, is no mirage: he’s the real deal. And when it’s time for his contract extension, he’ll take Allen’s mantle and own the largest guarantee in NFL history.
