Michael Irvin Argues the NFL MVP Race Has Become Similar to the Heisman Race: “If You Have a Big Game…”

With just one game week left, the NFL MVP race is about to come to a head. And three players stand out over everyone else — Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Saquon Barkley. The way the favorite in the race keeps fluctuating has prompted Michael Irvin to believe that the MVP award — much like the Heisman Trophy— will go to the player who lands a grand performance in a big game.

” I believe late in the season, the MVP between Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, or Saquon Barkley, the MVP race almost becomes like the Heisman race. It’s like do you have a big game in front of a big crowd and can you show up big to sway public opinion and voters? Because that’s what MVP has gotten now,” said Irvin.

Travis Hunter had won this year’s Heisman Trophy because of his ability to play on both sides of the ball efficiently. He captured the public’s imagination by providing big moments in a few matches both offensively and defensively.

Ashton Jeanty, on the other hand, had the numbers and led the FBS as a rusher in every category. However, Boise State played against weaker teams and Jeanty had big performances in every game. So he never had that iconic moment that Irvin is talking about.

In the NFL scheme of things, Irvin pointed out that Allen might not even play in Buffalo’s last game against the New England Patriots. That would leave Jackson with the perfect opportunity to make a splash when the Baltimore Ravens take on the Cleveland Browns for the AFC North title. And Barkley too, whose Philadelphia Eagles take on the New York Giants.

Irvin argued that had the Cowboys game last Sunday, when Saquon went over 2000 yards for the season, been for the NFC East title, he would have had a lot more eyes on him. That would have been a big moment, which would have made him the MVP front-runner.

Irvin advocated for Barkley as the MVP, particularly if he can break the single-season rushing yards record. Barkley just needs to rush 101 yards in the game against the Giants to break the mark held by Eric Dickerson.

In the MVP race, Lamar has the numbers and Barkley is chasing a 40-year-old record. Both have had their moments. However Allen’s moments came against the Kansas City Chiefs and the Detroit Lions, and he did all of that with a team that no one thought would make the playoffs.

Things are indeed tight in the MVP race. So, what are the odds now with only one game left?

MVP odds going into week 18 of the NFL season

Despite Jackson’s electrifying performances and impressive numbers in recent weeks, Allen remains the frontrunner for the MVP award. Heading into Week 18, the Bills QB leads with odds of -320, followed by the two-time MVP Jackson, whose odds range from +225 to +250.

Barkley has odds of just +1600. Joe Burrow, who was barely in contention earlier, also holds +1600 odds after leading the league in passing yards, touchdowns, and attempts. Burrow features higher up despite Cincinnati being just 8-8 in the season.

The issue with using stats as the sole metric for MVP voting is that things could get muddled.

Last year, Jackson didn’t lead in most statistical categories, except rushing yards for a quarterback. Yet the Ravens finished atop the AFC. Conversely, Allen led the league in total touchdowns but also had the most turnovers. And the Bills’ 11-6 record kept him out of serious MVP contention.

This season, the dynamic has shifted. Lamar now has the stats, while Allen boasts the better record. But if stats are the deciding factor, why isn’t Burrow receiving more attention? His league-leading numbers in passing categories make a strong case. And, if he can lead the Bengals into the playoffs, he deserves serious consideration.

Allen’s case is bolstered by his ability to spread the ball around — he’s thrown touchdown passes to 13 different receivers, with James Cook as his best weapon. Meanwhile, Jackson benefits from an offense that has the league’s best receiver separation and an All-Pro running back in Derrick Henry, who’s closing in on 1,800 rushing yards.

Unfortunately, the MVP has largely become a quarterback’s award, which hurts Barkley’s chances. Even with his historic season, and the possibility of breaking Dickerson’s record, his odds remain at +1600. If Barkley does make history, he undoubtedly deserves the award.