We’re less than 60 days out from the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft. Nearly time for everyone to buckle on their “draft expert” helmets and hop to it. This year’s draft cycle has been an even bigger treat for draft pundits and the like than usual. For the first time in three years, there’s a real question about who will be selected first overall in Green Bay—or if the Tennessee Titans will even keep the pick for themselves.
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Before discussing the main suspects, let’s consider a touch of NFL Draft history. 39 of the NFL’s 95 all-time first overall picks have been QBs. That’s over 40 percent. However, over the last 24 years, only 17 of the 24 top picks were signal callers, including six of the last seven.
There are four main candidates for the top pick at this point. The betting favorite is Miami QB Cam Ward, with Penn State edge Abdul Carter following close behind. Colorado teammates, QB Shedeur Sanders and CB/WR Travis Hunter, round out the top four. Now, let’s dive into this race to the No. 1 pick, and handicap who we think is going to run through the tape first.
Travis Hunter, Abdul Carter viewed as “Best Players Available”
He plays two of the most premium positions in football, so it’s no surprise that Travis Hunter sits atop many big boards across the league. As long as those big boards are based on “best player available.” Because he doesn’t play QB, Hunter is at a slight disadvantage despite finishing as a top five WR and top five CB in the nation in the same season. His 15 receiving TDs paced the Power Four conferences, and his four interceptions were 5th-most among the same group.
But the question is, can he excel at both positions in the NFL? His value is sky-high if you believe you’re getting an elite player at two positions. But if he turns out to be just a WR or just a CB, we’re not sure he’ll be worth a top 4 pick.
Abdul Carter, on the other hand, is a known entity, and while he needs some polish, he seems like the most likely bet to go No. 1 overall if that pick is not used on a QB. Receiver and corner are important, but edge rusher still trumps both. Carter has recently overtaken Hunter on many odds boards, but also on some big boards, such as Dane Brugler’s for The Athletic.
Titans choosing between Cam Ward & Shedeur Sanders at QB
After Will Levis’ four-month long presentation of NFL Football Follies last year, there’s no doubt Brian Callahan wants someone new under center. The only question is how desperate he is to get his franchise guy now rather than in 2026, when the crop of signal callers is supposed to be much stronger. They could opt to take Hunter or Carter and hope they can land Arch Manning or Drew Allar next year.
But after such a poor showing in his first year at the helm, an offensive guru and QB whisperer like Callahan will want to get his guy before he loses his job. So, who would Titans brass prefer between Ward and Sanders?
Ward seems to be viewed as the superior option. He’s got an excellent combination of arm talent, elite mobility, and anticipation on his throws. He engineered several comebacks and has proven that no moment is too big for him. He’s the prototypical dual-threat QB.
Like Ward, Sanders is great at extending plays and maintaining his cool under pressure. Sanders is also the most accurate passer in NCAA history (career 71.8 completion percentage). He does have a bad habit of drifting back in the pocket rather than climbing up like he should, and his arm talent isn’t elite, but his intangibles make him very intriguing.
Who will the Titans take No. 1 overall?
If anyone is ready for the spotlight that shines on a top pick, it’s Deion Sanders’ most famous son. Shedeur has already dealt with more hate and criticism than most No. 1 picks get in their lifetimes. And he hasn’t even taken an NFL field yet. But he’s shown himself to be a cool customer, and one that is to be respected by everyone on the sideline and in the huddle. Despite his early and controversial Bowl game exit, however, Ward is also viewed as a top-tier leader.
Sanders’ 74.8 completion percentage led the nation. But Cam Ward threw for more yards and TDs than the Colorado QB. He also threw TDs at a higher rate and INTs at a lower rate. He also averaged more yards per pass attempt and had a higher passer rating. Add on top of that Ward’s advantage in terms of running the ball himself (204 yards and four TDs), and the choice becomes clear.
Sanders is surgical, but Ward has more power and is a much more clear and present threat on the ground. Accuracy is a tool that can be improved much more significantly than arm talent and foot speed. A lot could still be revealed that could change things at the NFL Scouting Combine interviews, but Ward seems to have the (very slight) edge here.
What if Tennessee trades the top pick?
If the Titans decide against taking a QB, they will probably trade down to No. 2 with the Cleveland Browns or No. 3 with the New York Giants, both of whom are dying for a QB savior. Tennessee could deftly play them against each other to get the ideal trade package to move down just one spot and still get the guy (Hunter or Carter) that they really wanted.
In that scenario, Tennessee would likely head into the veteran QB market in March, which would basically make their decision for them a month and a half before the draft. In the end, no matter if it’s the Titans or someone else using the pick, Cam Ward is the most likely selection, with Sanders playing the role of darkhorse.
Why isn’t Ashton Jeanty in the conversation?
Many may be wondering why the runner-up for the Heisman Trophy is nowhere near discussions about the No. 1 pick. That’s because of the position he plays. Running backs used to dominate the NFL, and in that time of old, Jeanty’s 2,601 yards and 29 TDs would have been justly rewarded on Draft day. Not in this modern NFL.
They are as undervalued and underappreciated as any group of players in the realm of sports right now. Only long snappers, punters, and fullbacks make less than RBs. For that reason, there have only been two RBs even selected in the top 10 since 2018.
From 1936-1995, about 35 percent of top picks were RBs. In the last 29 drafts, that number has plummeted right down to 0. The last time an RB went No. 1 was when the Cincinnati Bengals whiffed badly on Ki-Jana Carter in 1995. Jeanty should still go in the first half of the first round, though, which is actually impressive for a running back these days.
