The Pittsburgh Steelers have never had a losing season under head coach Mike Tomlin. Over the past five years, they’ve made the playoffs four times and have consistently won at least nine games. But that remarkable run could be in jeopardy this year. For the first time in Tomlin’s tenure, the odds are stacked against the Steelers.
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Even after signing veteran quarterback Aaron Rodgers, Pittsburgh is favored in only six of its 17 regular-season games—a troubling sign for a franchise known for its consistency. While their projected win total hovers around the usual nine, just like in previous years, the lack of confidence from oddsmakers suggests deeper concerns.
Mike Florio recently weighed in on the situation, noting that bettors aren’t backing the Steelers heavily. He described their offseason as “desperate,” a reflection of a team aware of its precarious position. Florio also pointed out that these odds could shift significantly depending on the status of star linebacker T. J. Watt, who is still waiting on a contract extension.
Interestingly, Rodgers’ arrival didn’t do much to move the betting lines. But Watt’s potential departure? That could shake everything. He’s been the heart and soul of the Steelers’ defense—the single most important factor in determining whether this team finishes above or below .500.
The numbers speak for themselves: without Watt in the lineup, the Steelers have managed just one win against eleven losses. That stark contrast underscores his impact. As Florio noted, Pittsburgh isn’t in a position to move on from Watt, not now. If they had any intention of doing so, it should have happened earlier in the offseason, when they might’ve had the flexibility to find a capable replacement through free agency or the draft.
” Going into the season, 17 regular season games, where the lines have been attached, the Steelers are only favored to win six games. And that’s with the assumption that T.J. Watt is going to be there. If he ends up not being on the team, oh boy. It’s too late to extract T.J Watt from that locker room. If you are going to move on from Watt, you got to do it in March. So you got the full offseason, you got months for players to come to terms with the fact the one of their most important player isn’t going to be there.”
For now, the Steelers’ season hinges on Watt’s presence. Without him, even Tomlin’s spotless record may not survive.
The Steelers have made it clear they have no intention of trading T. J. Watt, but that’s often when blockbuster trades happen. Watt is seeking a massive contract extension, one that would make him the highest-paid non-quarterback in the NFL. That could mean a deal in the ballpark of $40 million per year—an enormous commitment for a player approaching 30, with a history of injuries and declining numbers last season. From a business standpoint, it’s a risky proposition.
With Minkah Fitzpatrick already traded, losing Watt, too, would be a massive blow to the defense. So what happens if they do let him go? The Steelers would likely demand a top-tier pass rusher in return, along with multiple draft picks. Watt has just one year left on his current deal, which limits their leverage, but if they can’t land an elite defender in return, they might settle for additional picks or a reliable wide receiver.
Fortunately, Pittsburgh had a strong draft this year, particularly on the defensive side. They invested heavily in bolstering the front seven, selecting Derrick Harmon (DL), Yahya Black (DL), Jack Sawyer (EDGE), and Carson Bruener (LB). Sawyer, in particular, is an intriguing addition. He brings experience, a winning pedigree, and physical traits that resemble Watt’s, though he’s slightly shorter and has a smaller hand span.
Replacing a former Defensive Player of the Year is nearly impossible. But with Mike Tomlin at the helm, the Steelers have always found a way to adapt. If Watt does move on, Pittsburgh may not replicate his individual dominance, but they could build a new defensive identity that doesn’t revolve around their future Hall of Famer.
