There are some things that have become inevitable in sports. Mike Evans going for 1,000 yards. Lebron James making the All-Star team. The Dodgers winning the NL West. We can probably add the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills meeting in the postseason to that list now. They will face off in the playoffs for the fourth time in five years in what has become an annual tradition. Part of that tradition has been a Chiefs triumph, but Colin Cowherd senses a changing of the guard.
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Every year, it seems a huge swath of the NFL fandom becomes Buffalo fans in January, hoping in unison that this will be the year the Bills finally defeat mighty Kansas City. And, even though the Bills are entering Sunday’s matchup as road underdogs, Cowherd doesn’t believe Josh Allen and company should be. The FS1 pundit has been riding the Bills bandwagon for some time now and points to a surprising stat as one of his reasons why.
“The wise guys like Kansas City, but I’ve been on the Bills for a month to win the Super Bowl. The winner of this game hoists the Lombardi Trophy. They have a winning record against the Chiefs since Sean McDermott has been there. In nine meetings, they’ve won five… And Kansas City, I think the jig is up. Even if you go to that Houston game, they only had 212 yards of offense, they only averaged four yards a play.”
While most have pushed Allen as the MVP because his supporting cast doesn’t have much quality, Cowherd disagrees. There are no superstars in either backfield, but Cowherd prefers James Cook to Isiah Pacheco, which is a fair evaluation. He also prefers the Bills receiving corps, though that might be because Allen has done a better job of spreading the ball around than Mahomes, who completed passes to just one WR last week.
Kansas City’s offensive line isn’t bad by any measure, but when you’re a middle-of-the-pack group being compared to the best unit in the league, you’re going to look the lesser. The Bills gave up just 14 sacks this year, the fewest in football, and that surely contributed to their ability to commit an NFL-record-low eight turnovers this season. Another part of that has been Allen’s maturation, as he posted a career low in turnovers (six INT, two FL) by a very wide margin this year.
And as any football fan will tell you, the turnover battle decides the game in the playoffs more often than not, including Cowherd.
“They lead the NFL in turnover differential. This team is different, like Kansas City, they don’t beat themselves. Fewest giveaways, eight, in a single season in league history. 12 games this year without a turnover. Their defense also may not be elite, but they led the NFL with 35 takeaways, because you’re usually trailing and have to play catchup and are kind of predictable.”
Cowherd did make some intriguing points, not the least of which was the turnover perspective. He also pointed out that, while Josh Allen has lost all three playoff battles with K.C., he has been scintillating in defeat. Especially in the last two, when he contributed seven total TDs against zero turnovers.
The worrying thing is that the Bills still lost despite playing a clean game in those instances. It’s very hard to bet against Mahomes in the playoffs at this point, as much as you might want to.
