The main course of the triple-header on NFL Wild Card Sunday will feature a matchup between the No. 3 seed Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the No. 6 seed Washington Commanders. The Buccaneers won their division and will play at home, although Washington won two more games than them this year. Nonetheless, Tampa is favored by three points here, though some experts, like Mike Florio, think an upset could be brewing for Jayden Daniels and company.
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Daniels and these 2024 Commanders feel like the new version of the Kardiac Kids. He’s led four 4th-quarter comebacks, 2nd-most ever by a rookie. Meanwhile, these Bucs have been known to play well when we think they’re going to stink, and play terribly when we expect them to win, as Florio pointed out. That should be a concern for Bucs fans.
“This is a closely matched game. And the team with the better record is the underdog by three points. I think the Buccaneers need to really be careful here because we’ve seen the Buccaneers are prone to slippage. When we think they’re good, and we think they’re rolling, they step in a pothole, and I can see it happening on Sunday night against the Commanders.”
The Buccaneers and Commanders have actually played each other already once this year. In Week 1, a nervous Jayden Daniels was making his NFL debut as the Bucs mopped the floor with the Commanders 37-20.
Florio and his guest, Rodney Harrison, harped on the fact that the Buccaneers need to ensure they don’t overlook this team because of that result. As Florio said, this Washington team is “very different” from the one Tampa faced four months ago.
If any rookie QB could buck the trends, it’s Jayden Daniels
The Commanders are underdogs, but they’re not huge underdogs like the Broncos and Steelers this weekend. They’ve got a legitimate chance to win this game, and the odds reflect that. Jayden Daniels has improved by leaps and bounds since that first contest. In fact, Daniels told Chris Simms it was the most nervous he had ever been for a game, which, according to Florio, explains his shaky performance.
Washington reeled off 12 wins in the remaining 16 games. Not bad for a rookie, and Washington’s best mark since 1991, the last time they won the Super Bowl. Talk about a good omen.
However, there seems to be too much working against them here. If Daniels was nervous for a Week 1 game, it’s reasonable to expect his first playoff game might feel similar. There’s a reason rookie QBs are 3-14 straight up when their first playoff game is on the road, as is the case for Daniels. That’s a tough precedent to overcome.
Not to mention that the Commanders may not be as good as their record makes it seem. Their strength of victory was just .365, which is the 2nd-lowest among all playoff teams. Only one of their wins came against a playoff team, and it was that whacky late comeback against the Eagles a few weeks ago.
The Buccaneers, meanwhile, are a grizzled and wily veteran team. They’ve been here before. They won a playoff game last year against a Wild Card team from the NFC East that had a better record than them. They can do it again. They’ve won six of seven since their bye and are coming into this one hot.
They have also proven themselves where the Commanders haven’t. Their .465 strength of victory is the 3rd-highest among playoff teams. They not only beat the Commanders, but they took down the Lions, the Eagles, and the Chargers too. Jayden Daniels has been a revelation, but you just can’t argue with history.
