Rafael Nadal is scheduled to take on Dominic Thiem on January 2 (January 1, 8.30 PM EST) at the Brisbane International 2024. Recently, Nadal raised eyebrows with his comments in an interview with El Pais about how he did not approve of youngsters and NextGen players focussing more on building a power game with mindless hitting rather than playing tactically. If the Spaniard is worried about how the game has changed in the last year or so in his absence, then being this honest might prove to be very costly for him. There are statistics which do not put the odds in his favor.
For instance, Rafael Nadal has lost the last 4 of his 6 ATP level matches on hard courts. The streak began actually in September 2022 when he lost to American youngster, Frances Tiafoe in the Round of 16 of the US Open. It followed by Nadal losing to Taylor Fritz in his first ATP Finals 2022 Round Robin match. The 22-time Grand Slam champion was knocked out of that tournament in humiliating fashion as well, with a loss to Toni Nadal’s now-protege, Felix Augur-Aliassime.
Rafael Nadal had some respite with wins over Casper Ruud (to end the 2022 season) and Jack Draper (to begin the 2023 season). However, Nadal faced another upset on a hard court, losing to Mackenzie McDonald in the Round of 64 at the Australian Open 2023. What this also means is that Nadal was defeated in all those matches by players under the age of 30 or NextGen players, all of whom rely on power-hitting in their game as they aim to hit winners without waiting much.
So it looks to be advantage Dominic Thiem as Rafael Nadal needs to improve on his W-L record on hard courts in recent years. The Australian Open 2024 could well be the last appearance of the 2-time champion in Melbourne and it would be interesting to see if Nadal has trained in the last few months, keeping his hard court game in mind. Otherwise, it could be a case of even the very mentally strong Rafael Nadal now being fearful of losing by not having as much confidence in himself, making it a mental block that he cannot take on younger players on a surface he has struggled in.
Additionally, Toni Nadal mentioned once that for Rafael Nadal, the first and second round matches of tournaments are the toughest and that makes his nephew a player who takes some time to get going. Being a momentum player who is more from the classical mould, Nadal needs to defeat his own self first to go on to defeat his competition.
Dominic Thiem aims for third straight win over Rafael Nadal on hard courts
Another statistic that gives Dominic Thiem possibly the edge is that he has beaten Rafael Nadal in their last two matches, both which were on hard courts back in 2020. Although that was nearly 4 years ago, but the worrying part for Nadal is that his only hard court win over Thiem was at the 2018 US Open quarterfinals. The rest of his 8 wins against the 2020 US Open champion have been all on clay courts.
What makes Dominic Thiem really challenging a prospect for Rafael Nadal is his aggressive, baseline strokes which can tire the Spaniard out on hard courts. Nadal would need to be extremely quick with his reflexes and make the most of his service game to counter the Thiem threat. Although Thiem qualified for the Brisbane International 2024 by the barest of margins, he would look at the Nadal match as an opportunity to announce himself again to the tennis world as a serious threat for big titles.
Perhaps, being tactical is valued still such as with players like Novak Djokovic, but focussing on being aggressive in mindset from the very beginning of a point played, is commonplace in the men’s game. Many believe that Rafael Nadal should not make such statements since he himself in his youth followed the strategy of going hard at the ball and being intense in every sense, which younger players took inspiration from. However, the 22-time Grand Slam champion is a mix of someone who mixes method with power, and this may not work on hard courts now especially.
Rafael Nadal needs to come up with something special, like he has done many times before in the past, especially when his chances were perceived to be less of winning big matches and titles. He would rely a lot on his successful training sessions with the likes of Richard Gasquet and Andy Murray amongst others recently, to get going on his comeback.
