New regulation changes can cause massive alterations in the pecking order in F1. Mercedes faced a harsh reality when the 2022 changes hit them hard. Since then, they’ve failed to get back to winning ways, and many people feel the next regulation changes in 2026 will be in their favor. Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff, however, is growing increasingly impatient. He is unwilling to wait till 2026 to see his team’s fortunes turn.
In a recent interview with Autosport, Wolff said:
“I don’t want to give up on the recovery and say, ‘Well, let’s wait for 2026, new car, new engine. There is two more important years to go. I want to see it as a testament for the strengths of the team that we are capable to recover and race for championships. That’s our clear objective.”
The hopes of recovering in 2026 aren’t unfounded either. Historically speaking, subsequent iterations of regulations have caused a massive shake-up. Take the 2014 and 2021 regulations, for example. In 2014, the advent of the hybrid engine era ended Red Bull’s 4 consecutive championship-winning streak. The 2021 ground-effect regulations, on the other hand, ended Mercedes’ 8 consecutive championship-winning run.
The Silver Arrows have, over the years, earned a commendable reputation for their power units. The 2026 regulations pertain to an overhaul in the power unit design and structure. Therefore, it could play in their favor. However, there would also be a major change in the chassis design and aerodynamic philosophy- two particular areas the Brackley-based team hasn’t done well in the last two years.
This uncertainty makes Wolff’s search for early success all the more justified. Mercedes made a good recovery as 2023 progressed. This shows the engineers in Brackley are starting to make inroads with the understanding of the aerodynamic concept. Should be enough to motivate the crew to push.
Can Mercedes challenge Red Bull in 2024?
In 2022, as the ground effect regulations came into play, Mercedes introduced a bizarre sidepod concept famously called the ‘Zeropod’ design. The concept failed miserably but the engineers in Brackley were adamant in making it work.
Resultantly, they fielded the same concept in 2023. Once again, the issues from last year, barring porpoising, continued to plague the Silver Arrows. By the time they decided to scrap it for an overhaul, it was too late, not only from the championship but also from the budget cap perspective.
F1 2024. Loading… ⏳ pic.twitter.com/LgM5M0AsGP
— Mercedes-AMG PETRONAS F1 Team (@MercedesAMGF1) January 6, 2024
2024 could be different, though. Apart from Ferrari, McLaren and Aston Martin, Mercedes, too has shown a better understanding of the regulations. While Aston Martin saw a dip in performance towards the end of 2023, the other three found some valuable tenths of recovery over Red Bull. Building over this progress would be the aim for all contenders before the start of the new season.
Despite all the positives, Red Bull remains the favorite in 2024. Not only would it require a successful overhaul for Mercedes, but also success early on in the season to challenge the reigning champions. Otherwise, Max Verstappen & Co. could inflict irrecoverable damage and walk away with the championships well before the conclusion of the campaign.
