Denny Hamlin has been putting on a show this season, winning six races and becoming the first driver to punch his ticket to the Championship 4 finale at Phoenix. However, the numbers tell an even more profound story. Statistician Daniel Cespedes recently laid out figures that paint a clear picture of Hamlin’s dominance, leaving even Jeff Burton convinced that 2025 could finally be the year he hoists the elusive Cup title.
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On intermediate tracks between 1-2 miles, Hamlin has been in a league of his own, leading the highest percentage of laps run inside the Top 3, standing as the only driver to log more than 40% of his laps in those positions.
In the Top 5, only he and William Byron have crossed the 50% mark. When the field expands to the Top 10, the duo remains the only two to eclipse 70%, and in the Top 20, Hamlin sits alone above 90%.
Looking closer, Hamlin has spent the most laps in second place (1,009) and third place (811), while his frenemy, Kyle Larson, leads the pack in first with 1,100 laps. When the two titans go head-to-head, Larson has led 299 laps to Hamlin’s 61 when they’ve shared the top two positions, totaling 360 laps.
Against his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate, Christopher Bell, Hamlin again comes out on top, leading 237 laps in first while Bell sits with 98 in second, making a combined 335 laps. When paired with Chase Briscoe, the latter has been in front for 214 laps while Hamlin has trailed for 67.
Yet in his rivalry with Chase Elliott, Hamlin flips the script, leading 131 laps while Elliott followed for 104. Another duel comes with Byron, where Hamlin has led 57 laps to Byron’s 149, totaling 206.
All these numbers reinforce Burton’s belief that Hamlin is on the verge of seizing his long-awaited crown. On NASCAR Inside the Race, Burton said,
“Mentally, he’s [Hamlin] ready mentally. Steve’s [Letarte, also on the show] been in this grind. You get into this, and it’s not easy. It is very difficult when the lights come on, and the pressure is there to go execute, and he’s ready, and the team’s ready, the Toyotas are fast. The team’s right. He’s right. But I just think emotionally he’s the strongest he’s ever been.”
Former crew chief Steve Letarte echoed Burton’s sentiment, calling Hamlin the current face of the NASCAR Cup Series. Letarte asserted that Hamlin’s star power isn’t just tied to his ownership of 23XI Racing alongside Michael Jordan or his hit podcast; it’s also the product of his sheer skill and longevity.
At 44, Hamlin continues to prove he can run with the best of them, still hungry, still sharp, and still very much in the championship hunt. Now, whether he makes his greatness in NASCAR official with another big metric, the championship, remains to be seen.