Boston Celtics Playoff Picture: SWOT analysis, possible playoff seeding, trade for a true point guard and more

The Boston Celtics seem to finally have turned the corner to their hitherto floundering season. Or so it’s seemed over the past 5 games.

It goes without saying that the Celtics have only flattered to deceive in the past 5 seasons or so. Things seemed bleak at Christmas, when the team lost to the Milwaukee Bucks despite having a 19-point lead on Christmas Day.

The team has rallied since then to post a mightily respectable 14-8 record in the past 10 weeks or so. Morale seems to be way higher as players come back into availability from Covid and get more used to their roles.

It’s not just the Celtics who’re having a mid-season resurgence – the Hawks have been downright HOT of late. However, Boston’s run of form is also backed up by the stats.

The Celtics had the no. 1 defensive rating in the league for the month of January. They also had the second-highest net rating behind the Phoenix Suns at 9.2 points per 100 possessions. They now have a clear defensive identity, which was something missing at the start of the year.

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Strengths

Robert Williams is probably the one constant in everything great about the Celtics in the recent past. The Time Lord has a spectacular feel for the game on both ends of the court. And there may not be a more impactful role player than the 6’8″ center in the entire league.

Apart from their defense, the Boston Celtics have also received a shot in the arm in the form of Jayson Tatum and his renewed form. #0 had, by most accounts, not been on his game through the first half of the year.

However, he’s been taking things one at a time, improving his reading of the game incrementally and making better decisions as the season’s gone along. The turnovers and tunnel vision rear their ugly head for him every once in a while, but he’s consciously adding more passes and fakes to his repertoire to keep it up.

Most importantly, though, the lineup now sports a settled look, despite their being a lack of a true point guard. As Celtics fans, we ride and die with our main man Marcus Smart, but that’s an area that Brad Stevens will be looking to consolidate at the earliest opportunity.

Weaknesses

The Celtics continue to have their periods of harakiri, when they muck up everything on offense and stop trying on defense at the same time. Ime Udoka has still been slow to sniff this pattern out and continues to delay the adjustments.

The team’s biggest momentum-killer has been its propensity to turn the ball over. If they’re able to play turnover-free basketball, the Celts have usually been able to generate good looks for their players. It’s when the passing rhythm starts falling a bit that Tatum and Brown start forcing the issue and accelerating the downward spiral.

Opportunites

Josh Richardson and Dennis Schroder have helped to shore up their previously leaky guard defense. Richardson is having a mid-career resurgence of sorts since signing with the Celtics. Schroder has also been a great energy guy on both ends besides running the 2nd unit.

These 2 players’ performances are usually the barometer for how well a game is going. If the transition from the starting unit to the bench lineups stays as smooth as it has been in the recent wins, we can expect to be tough first-round opponents for most teams in the Conference.

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Should the Celtics swing a trade before the deadline?

Marcus Smart, Dennis Schroder and rotation players like Aaron Nesmith, Romeo Langford and Payton Pritchard have all been speculated to be on the trade block. Al Horford’s minutes and effectiveness have both dropped, but he’ll still be useful against behemoths like Giannis and Embiid.

A thing to think about is if it all it’s possible to snag a viable option at the PG position at all. There isn’t much choice around the league, although an offseason option in the form of Ricky Rubio could open up.

Ultimately, the Celtics seem likely to be in for the long ride with Marcus Smart as the starting point guard. In his 8th season now, Smart’s value is mostly as a defensive option for the 2-4 spots, along with his pick-and-roll playmaking.

Losing him would be a significant price to pay in terms of defensive steel for Boston and may fatal to the defensive identity that Udoka’s worked hard to install.

Playoff Positioning

Despite their tawdry, stop-start beginning to 2021-22, the Celtics now find themselves only 4.5 games behind the top spot. With a heavily close Eastern Conference standings scenario at the moment, they’ll expect to continue their push in the same vein.

Boston is currently 5 wins ahead of their loss column – the same position as the Raptors and the Nets. They’ll expect to wrest sole control of the #6 seed at a bare minimum given the rate they’re going at.

At seeds #5 to #7, they seem fated to be drawn against the Milwaukee Bucks. The defending champions will possibly have Brook Lopez back for the playoffs, making their championship lineup complete.