Chase Daniel Doesn’t Believe Luck Was Behind Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs’ Win Against the Raiders

The Kansas City Chiefs are 11-1 through 13 weeks of football, the best in the AFC. However, their struggles have been evident week in and week out, with luck arguably playing a part in their victories.

In what is starting to resemble a Groundhog Day-type phenomenon, the Chiefs were once again bailed out by the 2-10 Las Vegas Raiders last week. In the waning moments of the game, a botched snap handed the defending champs the victory, something no one expected. All the Raiders needed was a field goal, and they were in range, but arguably, lady luck was on the Chiefs’ side. Still, Chase Daniel does not agree with this narrative.

The former NFL QB turned pundit quoted Billy Zane from Titanic in his explanation (via The Facility) for why he believes luck has not impacted the Chiefs this season.

“I don’t believe in luck. I think you make your own luck—but this is getting really crazy… They’re 11-1, they have nine one-possession games. In five of those nine one-possession games, they’ve won on the last play of the game, and then this last one was the second-to-last play of the game… It’s very, very weird what’s happening, but it’s not luck.”

“You make your own luck” is a deservedly oft-quoted line. But we’re not sure it applies here, as the Chiefs did nothing to cause the fiasco that won them the game at the last moment.

With 16 seconds remaining, Raiders QB Aidan O’Connell spiked the ball at the Chiefs’ 32. They could just kick the game-winning field goal, or they could try and push for a few yards to make the kick a little bit easier for kicker Daniel Carlson, who had already missed from 55, 56, and 58 on the day.

From the 32, Carlson’s kick would have been from 49 yards, a range from which he has gone 27-for-31 over the last four years. They were in a good spot, though it was clearly tough to resist the urge to make it a kick in the low 40s rather than in the high 40s.

Instead of kicking that potential game-winning field goal once they got in range, the Raiders tried to grab those few extra yards before the kick. The Raiders called a play, likely a quick out or something of that nature that could give Carlson a few more yards of leeway.

However, the Raiders’ communication collapsed at the most inopportune time—another reason why luck feels like a factor here—as rookie center Jackson Powers-Johnson snapped the ball before O’Connell was ready, resulting in a mad scramble for the ball that resulted in, you guessed it, a Chiefs recovery. Game over.

After further review, it seems as though the guard did give Powers-Johnson the tap that signals he needs to snap it, but O’Connell was clearly not on the same page. A snap snafu like that in such a crucial spot is about as rare as a solar eclipse, so we would have to disagree with Daniel’s notion that “luck” has nothing to do with K.C.’s success this season.

For once, we don’t seem to be in the minority. Most fans, whether Chiefs or not, rightly view luck as a major factor in K.C.’s ability to run up this 11-1 start to the season. The popular gif of Jesse Pinkman wailing in misery that Walter White “can’t keep getting away with it” has never been more perfectly suited to describe something than the 2024 Chiefs.

Unfortunately, they have continued to get away with it week in and week out. They barely escaped with a win against the 3-win Carolina Panthers last week. They required a game-winning field goal from their backup kicker with time expiring in that one.

A couple of weeks before that, something even more lucky than the Raiders debacle occurred. The Chiefs were able to block a game-sealing Denver Broncos field goal with no time remaining to secure another win.

The Chiefs have won 11 games, with nine of these wins coming by a single-digit margin. None of their wins have been particularly convincing either—especially considering the competition they’ve struggled against. We haven’t seen a paper tiger this obvious in the NFL since the 2020 Steelers, who started 11-0 and lost in the Wild Card round. The Chiefs should be worried.