Since 2020, Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills have felt like second sons in the Middle Ages. They watched as their big brothers, the Kansas City Chiefs, took on the world and conquered it (more than once), while they had to be happy to stay home and play second fiddle. However, NFL pundit Dan Orlovsky and many others believe that this year, 2024, is shaping up to really be “their year.”
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On Get Up, Orlovsky stated that Allen and the Bills are once again dominating, perhaps even more than in the past two years. To overcome the Chiefs, though, the leading analyst believes Allen must continue leading his team to more wins and secure the AFC’s top seed.
With a home-field advantage, Orlovsky argues that a spot in the Super Bowl is virtually secured for the Bills. And this, he believes, is why the next ten weeks will be the most “important” stretch of Allen’s career.
“It is the most important 10-week stretch of his career. It is a legacy defining 10-week stretch of his career. I know one thing, since 2022, he’s got the most touchdowns in the NFL and it’s not even close. I know the second thing, that in the playoffs, he’s gonna ball out. Every time he plays in a playoff game it’s like 320 yards, 11 touchdowns, three picks over the course of that stretch. They gotta win.”
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Orlovsky’s main point was that this 10-week stretch could define Allen’s NFL career and legacy. As the pundit said, it’s time to move past the “Josh Allen played great, but they lost” narrative. Thankfully, Allen has also tweaked his game this season, which will make a “Josh Allen played great, and they won” narrative much more likely come January and February.
Josh Allen is a huge favorite to win his first NFL MVP
Over the previous three seasons, from 2021 to 2023, Allen established himself as an elite QB, producing massive amounts of points and yards both through the air and on the ground. However, he was also one of the most erratic players in the league. He posted 15 (t-3rd-most), 14 (t-3rd-most), and 18 (2nd-most) interceptions during those seasons.
Alarmingly, Allen’s INT rate (how many INTs he throws as a percentage of his total pass attempts) also rose drastically from 2.3 in 2021 to 2.5 in 2022, to 3.1 last year, the highest among all QBs other than Mac Jones and Sam Howell. Not a great company to be in. Allen’s turnovers were often viewed as a product of him trying to put on his cape and will his team to wins.
However, in 2024, without a bonafide WR1 to complain about his targets, the Bills have been far more focused on creating a balanced attack. The Bills are top 10 in rushing attempts, shifting much of the offensive load from Allen’s shoulders to running back James Cook’s. And the results have been all too clear.
Allen has thrown just five interceptions this year, which would be by far a career low. His INT rate also dropped down to 1.4 percent. That would not only be a career-best, but 5th this year among QBs with 200+ pass attempts.
Thanks to these improvements, Buffalo’s 10-2 record, and Allen’s signature performance in a win over K.C., he is a surprisingly large -250 odds favorite to win his first NFL MVP award this year. For someone who’s been in the running more than once before, this feels deserved.
As for his team, the Bills, we expect them to go deeper than ever before. The Ravens have issues on the defensive end and on special teams. The Chiefs can barely beat the drudgery of the league. And we’re not taking Houston or Pittsburgh that seriously yet.
Allen has cleaned up his mistakes, the offense can now hurt opponents in multiple ways, and the other top contenders don’t inspire much confidence. We’re not sure they can win the Super Bowl, but they can certainly win the AFC this year.
