Lamar Jackson is the Biggest Roadblock to Patrick Mahomes’ Three-peat Dream

In 2019, Lamar Jackson won the NFL regular season MVP award while leading the Baltimore Ravens to the AFC’s best record. The same year, Patrick Mahomes won the Super Bowl and Super Bowl MVP honors.

Last season, Jackson won the NFL regular season MVP award again. He lead the Ravens to the AFC’s best record again. But he couldn’t get Baltimore to the Super Bowl. He lost 17-10, at home, to Mahomes’ Kansas City Chiefs in the conference championship game. Two weeks later, Mahomes won the Super Bowl and Super Bowl MVP honors again.

Now, nearly halfway through the 2024 campaign, Jackson is the favorite to be the league’s MVP for a third time. But Mahomes has orchestrated an unbeaten start for the Chiefs, including another victory over Jackson’s Ravens in Week 1. Despite that defeat, Jackson is poised to end Kansas City’s three-peat aspirations.

“Wow, the MVP favorite has been the league’s best player. Great analysis!”

Yes, the above statement is obvious. But Mahomes, in the midst of a brutal statistical opening to the year, sits behind only Jackson in the MVP race. Mahomes has half as many touchdown passes (6) as Josh Allen (12), and eight interceptions to Allen’s zero. Yet, according to DraftKings, he’s a slightly better bet (+475) to nudge out Allen (+500) for the award.

Jackson, meanwhile, has been on another level in 2024. He is still a dynamic threat with his legs – he leads all quarterbacks, and slots 11th among all players, in rush yards (455) – but has ascended to new heights as a passer:

• Jackson’s 118.0 passer rating is the best in the NFL.
• Jackson ranks second in passing yards (1,810), behind Baker Mayfield (1,859).
• Jackson sits second in pass yards per attempt (9.1). League-leader Jared Goff (9.2) is the slightest of margins ahead of him.
• Jackson is tied for second in passing touchdowns (15; Jordan Love), trailing just Mayfield (18).

Jackson has also only tossed two interceptions, third-fewest in the league. But here’s the kicker: per ESPN Stats & Information, both of Jackson’s interceptions came on drops. Those two giveaways on drops are tied with Deshaun Watson for the most in the NFL. Had those passes been hauled in by his intended receiver, Jackson – like Allen – would have a goose egg in the interception column.

Lamar Jackson is more dangerous than ever because of Derrick Henry

In the past, Jackson’s passing feats have been glossed over or overshadowed by the tremendous plays he makes as a runner. This year, though, his arm is taking center stage. He has been so good that ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky sees “no weaknesses” in his game.

FOX Sports personality Colin Cowherd essentially agreed, anointing Jackson as the “best football player on the planet” following his outstanding Monday Night Football performance.

Jackson’s elevated level of play has come with free agent signee Derrick Henry as his running mate. Defenses can no longer lock in entirely on him when trying to limit Baltimore’s rushing attack. They must devote players to stopping Henry, which gives the Ravens’ passing weapons more space to operate. And Jackson has repeatedly made them pay for doing so.

Through seven weeks, Jackson has outperformed Mahomes in every passing statistic. But to this point, Mahomes tops him in the most important category: wins. Baltimore’s offense didn’t discover its true form in Week 1, but has been a wrecking ball since then.

The Ravens were better than the Chiefs in 2023. When they matched up, though, they didn’t play like it. This offense – more specifically, this version of Jackson – can make waves against Kansas City. He is the biggest potential successor to Mahomes’ AFC throne. If his defense can rise to the occasion, he may claim his long-awaited Super Bowl ring – and prevent the Chiefs from making history.