The Detroit Lions’ 26-23 comeback win over the Houston Texans on Sunday night provided crucial insights into which teams are leading the playoffs race.
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Unsurprisingly, those teams are the Lions (8-1), Kansas City Chiefs (9-0), and Buffalo Bills (8-2) as per the rankings by The Athletic following the week 10 games.
Notably, the Lions, the Chiefs, and the Bills have the best win percentages, positioning them as the “big three” with a significant lead over the rest of the teams. Interestingly, their playoff odds are extremely high and they have a 99% chance of making it to the postseason.
Hence, unless something extraordinary happens, these teams are expected to reach the divisional round in January 2025, without relying on wild card results. This also raises the question: Which teams could challenge the big three?
The Ravens and Eagles are not far behind the big three, with 98% and 97% playoff chances, respectively. Meanwhile, the Texans, who lost to the Lions, have a 95% chance, ranking sixth in terms of playoff probability. And, the Falcons (93%), Chargers (91%), Vikings (90%), and Commanders round out the top ten teams.
Several other impressive teams like the Steelers (7-2) and Packers (6-3) also have strong playoff chances. But it remains to be seen if they could exert the same domination as the top 10 teams. The primary factors for the rankings were the win percentage and the upcoming matchups of each team.
Notably, the key difference between the top two teams—Chiefs and Lions—is their ability to overcome adversity. Despite trailing 14-3 against the Broncos, the Chiefs secured a comeback win in Week 10, demonstrating their commitment to winning.
Similarly, the Lions, who were down 23-7 in the second quarter, rallied back in style for their Week 10 victory, with Jared Goff delivering a crucial touchdown pass to recover from a five-interception setback.
As a result, the Chiefs (+400) and Lions (+450) are at the top of the Super Bowl odds for this year. It’s clear both teams are giving their all, with the Bills not far behind, bolstered by the Josh Allen factor.
The race for the playoffs and the Super Bowl 2025 will intensify with the Chiefs facing the Bills next week. Meanwhile, the Lions will take on the struggling Jaguars, with the odds heavily in their favor for Week 11.
