The Chiefs may have lost the Super Bowl a few months ago, but they’ve built a winning culture that endures. With two Super Bowl titles in three years and 15 regular-season wins last season, Kansas City keeps finding ways to succeed. However, anyone closely watching their games can see that something has changed, particularly on offense. The Chiefs haven’t looked the same since their explosive 2022 campaign, when they broke records and Patrick Mahomes earned MVP honors by throwing for over 5,000 yards and 41 touchdowns.
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Since then, neither Mahomes nor the offense has come close to replicating that form. The Chiefs have increasingly relied on their defense to grind out wins, while their offensive identity has noticeably shifted. There are several factors at play, but Mahomes’ regression in the deep passing game stands out as the most significant.
Stats can sometimes be misleading, but the game tape doesn’t lie. The past two seasons have featured far fewer explosive plays downfield. There’s been a clear lack of deep-ball threat, and the numbers confirm it. Between 2018 and 2022, Mahomes averaged 4.3 deep pass attempts per game (throws of 20+ air yards), racking up 45 touchdowns to just 12 interceptions, with an impressive passer rating of 112.3.
But in 2023 and 2024, his deep attempts dropped to just three per game, and the results dipped sharply. He managed only four touchdowns on such throws, while turning the ball over eight times. His passer rating on deep passes plummeted to a concerning 47.7.
Nick Wright recently broke down these numbers, reflecting on why the two-time MVP is falling behind in this critical area of his game.
Wright pointed out that this troubling trend began during Mahomes’ second MVP season. While he still made deep throws when necessary, he increasingly leaned on short passes and yards after the catch to move the chains.
“He kind of stopped throwing deep in 2022, the year he won league MVP, because there was so much run-after-catch stuff. The 2023 it seems like gets chalked up to drops, and nobody cared anyway because they won the Super Bowl. Last year, for me, was the perfect storm of sucking in the deep passing game.”
In 2023, his deep passing numbers dipped even further, partly due to dropped passes from his receivers. But no one paid much attention, as the Chiefs continued to win and ultimately captured another Super Bowl title. However, the cracks widened last season. Mahomes’ struggles became more apparent, especially in the first half of the year, as he threw a string of interceptions and looked like a shadow of his former self.
There was no one else to blame. The mistakes were on Mahomes. Yet, the Chiefs kept finding ways to win, thanks to a dominant defense and Mahomes’ ability to string together clutch drives late in games.
The deep-ball woes were only made worse by a depleted wide receiver corps, hampered by injuries to key players like Rashee Rice. On top of that, the offensive line was anything but stable. They lost their starting left tackle, Kingsley Suamataia, while right tackle Jawaan Taylor struggled with consistency all year.
Without reliable protection, Patrick Mahomes rarely had enough time in the pocket to let deep routes develop. The added pressure of chasing a historic three-peat only heightened the tension. As a result, the Chiefs were forced to adopt an increasingly conservative offensive approach—one that was effective, but far from the explosive style that once defined them.
“Mahomes stated the year with some of the worst football he has played as a pro. In the first four games, he had a pick. They won the games, but it was weird.”
Mahomes is still capable of rediscovering his deep passing game—and he’ll need to do it quickly if the Chiefs want to keep winning Super Bowls. In the last championship game, the defense finally cracked under pressure after carrying the team for much of the season. Fatigue had clearly set in from weeks of bailing out a struggling offense. Now, it’s time for the offense to step up and shoulder the load once again.
The Chiefs’ wide receiver room is deeper and more explosive than it has been in recent years. It features Hollywood Brown, Skyy Moore, Nikko Remigio, Justyn Ross, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Tyquan Thornton, Xavier Worthy, Rashee Rice, and Jason Brownlee, along with promising rookies like Jalen Royals, Elijah Badger, Jimmy Holiday, and Mac Dalena.
They’re also stacked at tight end with a strong mix of veteran experience and young talent. Travis Kelce still leads the group, joined by Jake Briningstool, Geor’Quarius Spivey, Robert Tonyan, Jared Wiley, Trey Watson, and Noah Gray.
Up front, the Chiefs have addressed their offensive line concerns as well. They signed free agent Jaylen Moore and drafted Josh Simmons, a versatile rookie capable of playing both left and right tackle. While Kingsley Suamataia and Wanya Morris return as options at tackle, both struggled last season. With All-Pro guard Joe Thuney now gone, Suamataia is expected to slide inside to guard, potentially solidifying the interior.
With speed on the outside and improved protection, Patrick Mahomes should have the tools he needs to revive his deep-ball threat. But ultimately, it comes down to him. He’ll need to trust his arm, let it rip, and take those shots downfield—without fearing turnovers. Only then can the Chiefs return to the offensive dominance that once made them nearly unstoppable.
