The main storyline in the NFL over the last couple of months has been the MVP race between Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen and Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson. As fate would have it, those two football giants will also face off for a ticket to this year’s AFC Championship Game. Thankfully for Allen, his Bills finished as the No. 2 seed and will host this game. While home-field advantage doesn’t always matter, it seems the weather could give Allen and Co. a significant boost.
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Teams like the Bills that play in open-air stadiums in frigid regions of the country, such as Western New York, are more used to cold temperatures. You could even say that some franchises build their rosters using the weather at their home field as a contributing factor. On Sunday night, when the Ravens and Bills lock horns, it’s expected to be 12 degrees Fahrenheit in Buffalo. Josh Allen likes that. A lot.
“Josh Allen has a 9-1 record in games where it is below 32 degrees outside. The projected kickoff temperature for Sunday’s game is expected to be 12 degrees.”
Historic: #Bills QB Josh Allen has a 9-1 record in games where it is below 32 degrees outside.
The projected kickoff temperature for Sunday's game is expected to be 12 degrees.
🥶🥶🥶 pic.twitter.com/vndyIMur5O
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) January 18, 2025
That 9-1 record is pretty impressive, and it includes his five-touchdown masterpiece against the Patriots in 7-degree weather during the 2021 playoffs. Overall, Sean McDermott’s Bills are 14-2 when the thermometer is reading 32 or below. Allen is a big-bodied, rough-and-tumble dual-threat QB—not to mention he’s from Wyoming—so it makes sense he’d like the cold.
There’s also a 50 percent chance that it’s going to snow on Sunday. While the Bills did pretty well against the Steelers last year in a bit of snow, they did postpone the game when it was very snowy, indicating perhaps they didn’t love the idea of playing in those conditions. Allen and the Bills also have one notably poor result in snowy weather. In 2021, they were manhandled at home under flurries by Joe Burrow and the Bengals, 27-10.
We’re not saying that’s going to happen again, but Lamar Jackson isn’t exactly afraid of the snow and cold either. If those temperature projections do hold, it will be the coldest game of Jackson’s career, but he is 3-1 in his career when it’s 32 degrees or below. If you’ve ever been to the wide-open M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore in December, you’d know he’s very familiar with the cold.
Despite that home-field and home-weather advantage for the Bills, they are still ever so slight +1.0 point underdogs to the Ravens for this one. Meanwhile, Josh Allen is favored in the MVP race at -250 odds, with Lamar sitting back in 2nd at +185.
