Novak Djokovic will take on Hubert Hurkacz in the third and final round-robin game of the 2023 ATP Finals. It is almost a must-win scenario for the Serb against the latter, who will be playing his first match of the event. Djokovic knows what is at stake here and will come out determined to take the victory. The qualification is not entirely in his hands, but he will secure the win over Hurkacz to play his part.
Stefanos Tsitsipas’ withdrawal complicated the semi-final qualification criteria in the Green group. Hurkacz replaced him as the first alternate and will play his only fixture against Djokovic. The Pole has no chance of making it to the next round. The fate of the other three players, however, hangs in balance. The outcome of the Jannik Sinner vs. Holger Rune clash could also have implications for Djokovic’s future in the tournament.
Despite winning the Shanghai Masters and finishing second at the Swiss Indoors, Hurkacz could finish only ninth in the ATP Race to Turin. He has performed well after an early exit from the US Open. Djokovic, meanwhile, entered the ATP Finals not having lost a single match since his Wimbledon final loss. He met with a surprise defeat against Sinner in the previous fixture, complicating matters for his semi-final qualification.
Djokovic dominates the head-to-head against Hurkacz 6-0, two wins each on every surface. Additionally, this is the first and only match the World No.9 will play in Turin. It is not practical to expect him to come in and secure an upset.
Djokovic gives his best with his back to the wall and after his last defeat, he has been cornered. A loss could be tricky for his final four chances, leaving him dependent on the results of the other game. Expect Djokovic to give it his all and win the tie in straight sets to secure qualification.
Novak Djokovic needs a win to qualify for ATP Finals semis from chaotic Green Group
As it stands, each of the three players in contention from the Green group could either be eliminated or advance to the semi-finals. Djokovic, for his part, needs to beat Hurkacz and try to wrap it up in straight sets. The most straightforward scenario is him and Sinner winning their respective clashes, which will see both of them progress without much fuss. The World No.1 will be praying for the Italian to win since it is beneficial for him.
If Djokovic loses and Sinner wins, the former will still qualify because of his better tournament head-to-head against Rune. However, if Djokovic falls and Rune wins, it draws curtains on the Serb’s title defence. Sinner and the Dane will advance into the semi-finals in that scenario.
The trickiest permutations arise if Djokovic and Rune win, since all eligible players would end up with a 2-1 W/L record, rotating losses. It would then come down to the set-win percentage. In this scenario, the 24-time Grand Slam champion goes out even if he wins by three sets. If Djokovic beats Hurkacz after a decider and Rune wins his fixture, the latter advances as the group topper and Sinner gets in the second place.
The most chaotic situation by far would be if Djokovic wins in straight sets and Rune in three. Then, the duo and Sinner would all have identical set records, 5-3. It would then go down to the game W/L percentage, going really down the wire. The Serb and Sinner will have an advantage in this scenario. If both Rune and Djokovic win in two sets, the Italian will bow out.
Novak Djokovic will be well aware of the messy qualification scenarios and will know what is required of him. Expect him to bounce back from his loss against Sinner and put on a masterful performance against Hurkacz to win in straight sets.
