Will Buxton’s quote from the latest season of Drive to Survive comes to mind: “Rumors don’t come from nowhere in Formula 1.” While Buxton was referring to the potential of Lewis Hamilton shifting to Ferrari in episode 6 of the docu-series, in hindsight, he wasn’t wrong. The same logic can apply to everything around Red Bull and Christian Horner today.
To put it as simply as possible, rumors have it that Horner wanted to stage a coup to take full control of the team. This has fueled one of the conspiracies behind a very real situation: the allegations against Horner from a senior employee. Some rumors suggest that Marko and the Verstappen camp were behind making the news public and sparked what has now become a raging flame. And where there’s smoke…
Now, Jos Verstappen has been spotted talking to Toto Wolff and images of Max Verstappen photoshopped in Mercedes overalls have taken over the internet. Uncontrolled chaos. But it boils down to one question: when it comes to it, will Red Bull choose Horner or Verstappen?
Any way this goes, Red Bull will end up losing at least one of the four pillars of the team: Verstappen, Newey, Marko, or Horner.
First things first, what are the implications of Verstappen racing for a rival team? While the Dutchman could continue to dominate at Red Bull without Horner, how far can the ship go without its captain? Love him or hate him, Christian Horner has made Red Bull the dominant beast it is today.
Recruitment, funding, investment, the direction, vision, and leadership that Horner brought have been crucial. The British boss has been the wind in Red Bull’s sails, giving them the momentum without which, even a driver like Verstappen would fail to thrive.
What happens if Christian Horner goes out?
Should justice mean Horner getting the pink slip from Red Bull, replacing him will leave big multi-million dollar shoes to fill for the team. It would be impossible to picture anyone from the paddock or outside worthy enough to sit in his seat as team principal. Horner is the very foundation of the team’s historic success.
To break that very foundation and build a new one that could guarantee success – just isn’t feasible.
While many have touted Jonathan Wheatley as the perfect successor, it would simply be impossible for him to replicate the marketing and business side of Horner’s remarkable CV, as The Race suggested.
Can Max Verstappen leave Red Bull?
Although contracted with Red Bull till 2028, there have been talks of Verstappen moving to Mercedes. This started with Verstappen Sr.’s conflict with Horner, and his worry of what all these noises could mean for his son.
This whole thing could be the final nail in the coffin of the Verstappen-Red Bull relationship. It may not seem like it but the two haven’t had the best relationship. Since day one, Jos has used Mercedes’ interests as leverage hung over Red Bull’s head as a possibility that Max could leave.
A Horner-less Red Bull could still be successful for a while, running on fumes while they get a replacement. But, no one can deny that there is only one Max Verstappen in the sport. Also, there is no one without the other. Verstappen could go to Mercedes, sure, but would he be able to replicate what he’s done with Red Bull? It’s difficult to say. Still, one may wonder if the three-time champion needs Red Bull more than they need him. Or will the converse be true? Time will tell.
Will Adrian Newey go Red?
Adrian Newey has thrived in an environment long created by Horner, where corporate interference wasn’t a problem. Not only has Dietrich Mateschitz’s death shaken things up in this structure, but should Horner have to leave, the aforementioned business role would have to be taken over by someone from the industry. And so the racing division could bear the brunt of a dual leadership, especially if it’s Red Bull GmBH.
Further, the long-heard stories of Newey’s “regrets” and unfulfilled wishes of working at Ferrari also make a fighting argument. If it was enough for Hamilton to leave Mercedes, the call of the Red would be enough for anyone.
All in all, it looks like the synergy that has made Red Bull what it may soon be over. With each passing day, it seems unlikely that Horner stays at Red Bull, and Newey and Verstappen run along with it with so much chaos. Just as Red Bull started the beginning of a legacy, the Raging Bulls have been doused into a weakened calf exposed to its enemies.
