Opinion: Lando Norris the Man to Beat After Bahrain Testing; Ferrari or Red Bull, Who Is Closest?

The 2025 pre-season testing in Bahrain has finally concluded, giving a glimpse of what the pecking order could be this season. With the usual caveats of testing — such as engine modes, fuel loads, and tire compound offsets — accounted for, there is a hint of who will be the driver to beat as the battle for the 2025 world championship kicks off in Melbourne in two weeks.

From the long runs and race simulations done by all 10 teams, it seems like McLaren have a clear advantage with their MCL39 running quite smoothly on all fronts across the three days of testing. Lando Norris was the one leading their charge and his race simulation on day two of the Bahrain test has turned a lot of heads in the paddock.

Norris jumped in the McLaren during the afternoon session on Thursday and did a race run of three stints using the C3, C1, and C2 tire compounds, respectively in that order. The Race reported how the British driver was comfortably quicker than the Ferrari and Mercedes cars.

It was Charles Leclerc who was driving for Ferrari while rookie Andrea Kimi Antonelli was behind the wheel of the Mercedes W16 during that session. On average, Norris maintained a three to four-tenths advantage in the first two stints. While Ferrari was a relative benchmark, what about Red Bull?

The Milton Keynes-based outfit had a relatively substandard test in Bahrain, as they couldn’t get a like-for-like race simulation on Thursday evening like its other three rivals. So, it is difficult to deduce where their pace lies compared to McLaren, who seem to be setting the marker with their fastest package.

Throughout the three-day test, Norris never looked concerned about the car’s performance. Even the reason for his classification on day two and day three being outside the top 10 was that McLaren weren’t really focusing on low-fuel performance runs and instead doubled down on understanding their long-run pace.

So, where does this leave Red Bull and Ferrari? While Red Bull seemed a bit out of sync with the rest of the grid, Ferrari were right there in the hunt to chase down McLaren’s benchmark with both drivers — Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc — running their test program without any hiccups.

Can Hamilton or Leclerc match Norris?

Among all drivers, Hamilton and Leclerc seemed like the most likely to get close to Norris’ pace. Ferrari had their moments of topping the timesheets during the Bahrain test and were often at the sharp end of the grid, chasing performance.

While Hamilton was busy getting used to the new car concept and developing his understanding with his new team, Leclerc was silently putting in the miles to fulfill all of Ferrari’s expectations. While Leclerc’s race simulation compared to Norris may have shown a considerable pace gap, there is nothing concrete to say that the Italian team weren’t sandbagging.

Running on lower engine modes besides having higher fuel loads is the classic tactic of masking a car’s performance during pre-season testing. This can easily skew the lap times on qualifying or race runs and indicate that one particular driver or team has a significant advantage — case in point, Norris and McLaren.

However, the way Leclerc went about his business, it seems like the Monegasque driver could be right in the mix for wins and the drivers’ championship besides Norris. And if Hamilton can familiarize himself quickly with the SF-25, there is nothing that could keep the seven-time world champion from hassling his compatriot in Papaya colors at the front.

But does this all mean that the defending world champion Max Verstappen is not going to be in the title fight in 2025? Yes and no.

In what can be described as one of the most uncertain pre-season tests for Red Bull, neither Verstappen nor their new signing, Liam Lawson, made any headlines to suggest where their performance stands relative to their rivals.

Where do Verstappen and Red Bull stand?

Firstly, Lawson had a spin on day two and his car also suffered from a water pressure issue (which is yet to be confirmed) that eventually hampered his running. Red Bull had the lowest lap count of all the teams on Thursday as the Kiwi driver ran in the RB21 the whole day, clocking in 91 laps.

While one would say that Verstappen’s absence may have caused this, the Dutchman also had a day of limited running on Friday with only 81 laps on the board to wrap off Red Bull’s Bahrain testing. For context, Alex Albon also ran the Williams car for the whole day on the last day of testing but put in 136 laps.

Now, the lack of mileage isn’t something that would put the Austrian outfit on the back foot as such. However, they probably weren’t able to find all the answers they had hoped for regarding the handling and performance of their car, which is an evolution of the troublesome RB20 concept from last season.

Christian Horner did state that both Verstappen and Lawson felt that the car was ‘easier to drive’, which was certainly an improvement on their balance issues from last season. In fact, the Dutchman ended up with the second-fastest lap time on the final day, just two hundredths off George Russell. However, that could’ve easily been a qualifying run, which doesn’t indicate where their long-run pace is.

While Verstappen would somehow manage to stay in the fight at the front, the Red Bull challenger may not be as quick as the McLaren MCL39, at least for the initial few races. Unless Red Bull manage to unlock some more pace until the Australian GP weekend, the four-time world champion would have to pull off a miracle to win the season-opening race.

All in all, Norris and McLaren are the ones to beat come the first race in Melbourne. Even though the pace gap in favor of Norris and McLaren may not be as big as it seems from the pre-season testing results, the likes of Ferrari and Red Bull have some work to do to match and beat the reigning Constructors’ champions.