Like any sport, NASCAR needs superstars in every generation who would go on to become icons and veteran faces of the sport in the future. Denny Hamlin recently reached the 60-win mark to solidify his status as an all-time great from this era.
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Dale Earnhardt Jr. has weighed in on which other current drivers can realistically aim to join the hallowed club of greats with 50 or more career victories.
On the latest episode of The Dale Jr. Download, the 51-year-old predicted, “I think Kyle Larson could do it. Maybe Joey [Logano].” But there was also a catch when it came to Logano.
“Joey needs to run better during the regular season,” Junior insisted. Breaking down the numbers, Junior pointed out that Logano, now 35, sits at 37 career wins, just 13 short of 50.
“He’ll get to 50 easy… I think Joey lands around 55 wins in his career…” Junior added.
While discussing Brad Keselowski, Dale Jr. wasn’t as optimistic. “Brad’s at 36,” he said. “I don’t see Brad getting there. Brad will be lucky to see 40… Brad’s situation, it’s just their team just doesn’t have speed yet.”
When it came to Larson, Dale Jr. saw potential but questioned longevity. “Kyle Larson,” he said, “Unless something massively changes it.” With Larson sitting at 32 wins, Junior stated, “If he wants to race long enough… I think Kyle Larson doesn’t race long enough…”
As for Larson’s teammate, Chase Elliott, Junior doubted he’d stick around that long either. “Chase Elliott’s at 21,” he said. “Chase Elliott will retire before that’s possible… I think if Chase Elliot wanted to win 60 races and stick around that long, he’d have a shot at it. But I think he [would] get out before. I think he’s like, ‘Alright, y’all. I’m gonna go hide in the hills of Georgia. Never see him again.'”
Dale Jr. seemed most confident in Logano’s staying power. He predicted the Team Penske driver could finish with close to 55 wins. Junior called him “the guy that’s going to race… He’s going to race a ridiculously long,” because, as he put it, Logano “doesn’t give a sh*t about nothing but racing.”
Statistically, Larson and Hamlin lead the pack in consistency since 2022, boasting the highest average wins per season. Larson has averaged 5.7 wins across the 2021–2023 stretch, while Hamlin has averaged 4.3 from 2022–2024.
This year, Logano has one win to his name, Larson has three, and Hamlin leads the charge with six. Of course, three races are left on the calendar and plenty of room for the numbers to shift before the checkered flag falls on 2025.
