In the competitive world of NASCAR, drivers are remembered mostly through the wins that they have bagged over the years driving their high-horsepower machines. Speaking of which, can anyone surpass Dale Earnhardt‘s 76 Cup Series victory?
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Jeff Gordon made the thought of a driver flaunting 100 career Cup Series wins possible before he ended his victory list at 93. And no one has come close since then and perhaps nobody else will.
Dale Earnhardt sits 8th on the all-time Cup wins list. Kyle Busch is next with 63 victories. Kevin Harvick is 10th with 60 career wins. However, the Stewart-Haas Racing legend has retired already and is out of contention. So that leaves it to Busch and a few others.
Can anyone pass Dale Earnhardt’s numbers?
Rowdy has no more than 4 wins in a season for the last four years. Which means, he holds an average of 1.75 victories a year. Considering this rate and the fact that Busch is already 38, he would need about 7 and a half seasons to tie Earnhardt. Technically, that would be 2031.
Joe Gibbs Racing driver Denny Hamlin sits just below Busch with 51 Cup wins. However, Hamlin is 43 and probably just a few years away from retirement. Does he have the time to beat Dale Earnhardt? Likely not.
During the stretch of 2009-2021, RFK owner Brad Keselowski had 35 victories to his credit, the last being at the GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway. However, the #6 Ford driver went winless throughout the next two seasons. It’s perhaps impossible for this 39-year-old speedster to amass 77 career wins anytime soon.
Dale Earnhardt sits 8th on the all-time #NASCAR Cup Series wins list.
Will any drivers on this list catch him? pic.twitter.com/Q8Pj7PlnWV
— NASCAR on NBC (@NASCARonNBC) November 18, 2023
Team Penske icon Joey Logano has 32 career Cup wins in 15 seasons. Meaning, the 33-year-old holds an average of 2.1 wins a season. Although he had only one win in his first three seasons, him scoring the other 31 victories in the last 12 years gives him an average of 2.6 wins per season. At this rate, he could score another 26 wins over the next decade, which would put him at 58 wins at the age of 43.
Kyle Larson, the 31-year-old Elk Grove native has 23 Cup Series triumphs in 9 full-time seasons. That is an average of 2.6 wins every season. At that rate, he would reach 60 wins in about 14.2 seasons. However, beating Earnhardt is an entirely different conversation.
Perhaps Larson’s teammate Chase Elliott has a chance of nearing Earnhardt. With 18 wins in 8 seasons, the Golden Boy of Hendrick Motorsports has an average of 3 wins per season. Although that would give him 66 wins before he turns 44 years old in 2039, he would still be short of Dale Earnhardt’s total.
