Fernando Mendoza vs Diego Pavia: Which CFB QB Has a Greater Chance of Winning the Heisman?

As usual, even this year’s Heisman top-three finalists are dominated by quarterbacks (Fernando Mendoza, Diego Pavia and Julian Sayin), alongside a Russian roulette over which position the fourth spot represents. However, with the ceremony just a day away, the real conversation seems to have narrowed to two names: Mendoza and Pavia.

On one hand, the Indiana quarterback represents sustained dominance and undefeated consistency (13-0). His Vanderbilt counterpart, meanwhile, symbolizes transformation and a true underdog story. This contrast is exactly why this Heisman race has felt unusually tense.

On paper, Pavia’s season reads like a Hollywood script. Vanderbilt (10-3), a program long labelled as the SEC’s doormat, finished with its first-ever 10-win season, flirted with the College Football Playoff, and produced its first Heisman finalist.

Pavia threw for 3,192 yards and 27 touchdowns and rushed for 826 yards and nine more scores. In many ways, he has redefined Vanderbilt’s ceiling.

Mendoza, however, ensured Indiana went undefeated, won the Big Ten title, and reached the CFP with ease. He finished with 2,980 passing yards, 33 touchdowns, just six interceptions, and a 71.5% completion rate, while adding value as a runner when needed.

As one can make out, statistically, Pavia has the edge in raw output and versatility. His dual-threat profile even mirrors recent winners like Johnny Manziel, Baker Mayfield, and Kyler Murray. Moreover, Vanderbilt often needed Pavia to be extraordinary late into games, and he was.

Mendoza, by contrast, often didn’t need to be spectacular in the fourth quarter because Indiana had already taken control. Yet when Indiana needed him, at Penn State, Oregon, and against Ohio State, Mendoza answered with poise. Those moments will matter deeply to voters.

So, it’s no wonder that oddsmakers seem to have made their stance clear. As things stand, Fernando Mendoza is the overwhelming favorite, sitting around -5000, while Pavia trails at +1500.

Mendoza even has analysts on his side, as popular CFB podcaster Chad Withrow, who recently appeared on Outkick, explained why he is backing the Indiana quarterback for the trophy.

“Indiana’s story is too good,” Withrow said, while also noting that Diego Pavia’s two losses, particularly against Alabama, weakened his case. Even more telling was his belief that regional voting bias could play a role, likening the Heisman map to an Electoral College split between Mendoza-heavy Midwest voters and Pavia-heavy Southeast voters.

And considering how small the margins are between the two candidates, regional voters being the difference makers does paint an accurate picture.

Has Heisman voting become more like the electoral college with all of the geographic bias? @TreyWallace_ @TheChadWithrow @HuttonOutkick pic.twitter.com/a9e7hdVJxl

— OutKick (@Outkick) December 12, 2025

To sum it up, if this award were purely about individual impact, Pavia would be dangerously close to winning it. But the Heisman has not always lived purely in numbers. It often lives in wins and narrative clarity, which is why Mendoza has the clearer path to lifting the trophy.