The Las Vegas Raiders have been in the mud for some time, but Pete Carroll is a mudder. He knows how to turn a program around. Las Vegas lured him out of retirement to take charge of the ship on the Vegas Strip, and positive developments have followed. Carroll isn’t just an elite football coach, he also brings with him an aura and a belief that this Raiders project will succeed where previous ones over the last two decades failed.
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Another reason for the fuzzy feelings in Nevada is the active role minority owner and serial winner Tom Brady has taken in this rebuild. After nabbing Carroll, Brady and the head coach targeted and signed Carroll’s old QB from Seattle, Geno Smith, to serve as a bridge to the future.
It was a smart move for a team that needs stability and reliability — qualities Smith can provide. These two additions have led some, like Nick Wright, to believe the Raiders are further along in their rebuild than many might think
The AFC West is one of the most intriguing divisions in the NFL heading into 2025. The Kansas City Chiefs can be expected to continue to top the quartet, but that second-place spot in the West will be hotly contested.
While most believe this year’s competition will be between the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers — both of whom made the playoffs last year — Wright thinks the moves Vegas made this offseason have put them in the driver’s seat.
“They had a bottom-three coach last year; they replaced him with a top 10 coach in Pete Carroll. They had a bottom-three quarterback situation; they replaced him with a top 12 quarterback in Geno Smith. Have a last-place schedule. They are going to be able to draft an impact player at No. 6. Pete Carroll wants to win right now,” explained Wright.
“Everyone is going to be all over the Broncos or the Chargers. I think it’s the Raiders that could finish 2nd in the AFC West. I think Pete Carroll has the Raiders fighting for the final Wild Card spot in the AFC in Year 1.”
Raiders made a massive upgrade at coach, QB, can draft an impact player at 6, and have a 4th place schedule.
That’s an easy OVER 6.5 wins for me. @DKSportsbook #DKPartner https://t.co/GJ3Seg7BQM pic.twitter.com/NR2Ed2XDae
— nick wright (@getnickwright) April 16, 2025
Wright’s argument came in the context of a futures bet he likes on the Raiders to hit the over on their 6.5 win total for 2025. I think that’s a solid wager too. However, seven wins won’t make you a Wild Card team. They’ll need to surpass that number significantly to do what Wright is suggesting and overtake two 2024 playoff teams.
The Chargers and Broncos are in similar positions. They both have experienced, championship-caliber coaches with clear visions for their teams, and they both have promising young QBs to execute on the field. They are well-rounded rosters that are also very well-coached. Vegas has stars like Maxx Crosby and Brock Bowers, but they don’t have nearly the depth of their AFC West foes.
None of these teams made major free agency splashes—though Denver did make some shrewd defensive signings while the Chargers picked up a few unexciting but solid plug-and-play starters on offense—so the biggest changes to their 2025 outlooks will come through the draft.
While we love the Carroll-Smith additions, there haven’t been many others to write home about for a Raiders team that was 4-13 last year. Jim Harbaugh in L.A. and Sean Payton in Denver have a year and a leg up on Carroll in L.V. So, while there’s a strong chance Carroll brings success to the Raiders, it won’t be as the second-best team in the AFC West in 2025.
