Stephen A. Smith Explains Why the Chiefs Have a 40% Chance of Making the Super Bowl

The Kansas City Chiefs were beaten in Super Bowl 59 by the Philadelphia Eagles quite comprehensively. Most teams that make it to the Super Bowl do not get beaten in that manner. And that is to say, to a pulp.

The final score of 40-22 was beyond kind to the Chiefs, who were down 24-0 at halftime. And they were down 34 to those Birds at one point. It was quite a jarring experience, considering they had gone 15-2 in the regular season.

Not to mention, they were going into that game looking to become the first team ever to win three Super Bowls in a row. It hit their superstar at a personal level, too. Patrick Mahomes had only lost by double digits four other times in his career. And yet, one game does not define a team.

The Chiefs are still top four on the betting odds board for the 2025 NFL champion, sitting behind the Ravens, Bills, and Eagles with +800 odds. That’s an implied probability of about 11 percent. Stephen A. Smith, however, gives them a 40 percent chance, precisely because of how they lost their last game.

“Give ’em about a 40 percent chance. It stops there,” the analyst started his argument on First Take.

“Here’s the reason why — I’m gonna be more direct. When you get your ass kicked, like they got their ass kicked, it’s a different animal,” continued SAS.

“And that’s not verbiage we usually use on First Take, but it is a propos. Go to the highlights. Third quarter of the Super Bowl! Tell me when you have ever seen Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce sitting on a bench together like this,” he added.

Smith then imitated an exasperated and exhausted Mahomes and Kelce in the midst of going down 40-6 in the Super Bowl. We’re not sure how to even check it, but that’s got to be up there with the biggest deficits in Super Bowl history.

Smith then explained why getting beaten so badly might have been a good thing. “They got STOMPED… So when you have those ingredients, it’s one thing if you’re unbeatable,” he said.

“But when somebody shows you a vulnerability, okay? You’re like, ‘Oh damn, I didn’t see that before!’ When they lost to Tampa Bay years ago, that was strictly about an offensive line that couldn’t protect Patrick Mahomes,” added Smith, before acknowledging that the offensive line remains an issue for the Chiefs.

.@stephenasmith gives the Chiefs a 40% chance to make it back to the Super Bowl this season 👀 pic.twitter.com/GFN4IwIuXn

— First Take (@FirstTake) August 7, 2025

In 2024, there were a whole host of other issues as well, while in 2020, it was just the O-line causing the problems, noted Smith.

But now, the Chiefs really recognize their flaws. There were no more Raiders snap snafus or Broncos field goal errors to hide behind. They saw themselves and all their warts for what they really were.

And we are with Stephen A. That realization will make the Chiefs better this year.

Not only that, it will mean they are angrier too. Look for them to not only make a deep playoff run but also put up gaudy numbers in the regular season for the first time in a few years.