Analyst Says 60% Percent Chance Warriors Trade Jonathan Kuminga by January 20, 15 Days Before Trade Deadline

The ongoing, almost never-ending uncertainty over Jonathan Kuminga’s future in Golden State may finally be nearing its conclusion as the trade deadline approaches. Steve Kerr doesn’t see him as a part of his plans, even when the team is short-handed. But then, that narrative has been playing out in a loop for quite a few months now.

Just how likely is Kuminga to exit the Warriors truly this time? Monte Poole recently analyzed the Kuminga situation, and for those who want this unhappy marriage to end, it’s great news.

Golden State appears to be actively eyeing a trade package that would send their 2021 No. 7 Draft Pick away. What’s greater news is the fact that the Warriors may not wait until February 6 (trade deadline day) to ship Kuminga off.

The Congolese forward may be on a flight out of San Francisco as early as January 20, the day their mammoth home stand ends in a game against the Raptors. “Warriors have done their homework on all the possibilities; they have a list ranking all the possible outcomes,” Poole stated on the Dubs Talk podcast.

“60% chance Kuminga is moved by the end of the homestand on January 20th,” he added.

There have been a number of teams interested in landing Kuminga. Among those, the Sacramento Kings are the team that believes the most in his potential. A deal involving him and Malik Monk, with other franchises potentially joining in to turn it into a multi-team trade, is very much on the cards.

.@MontePooleNBCS on Kuminga:

“Warriors have done their homework on all the possibilities, they have a list ranking all the possible outcomes . . . 60% chance Kuminga is moved by the end of the homestand on January 20th”

From The Dubs Talk Podcast pic.twitter.com/9ZhBe7NADv

— Chef (@CurryForGame) January 6, 2026

The 60% chance that Poole talked about was just of Kuminga leaving before January 20. The probability, in all fairness, will go higher and higher as February 6 approaches.

Kuminga will be desperately looking to leave this chapter of his career behind. He last played a game on December 18 against the Suns. So it has been weeks since he even repped the Warriors.

It seems baffling because in September, Kuminga signed a $48 million, two-year deal with Golden State. And half a year of that has just gone to waste. So, for any team willing to take him on, it would essentially be on an expiring contract.