How will the Memphis Grizzlies fare once the 2022 NBA Playoffs begin under the leadership of Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr?
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Perhaps the biggest surprise of this NBA season would be the Memphis Grizzlies being ahead of schedule in terms of Playoff legitimacy. With 28 year old Steven Adams being the oldest player on their roster, it’s fair to say that the no one expected Ja Morant, in his 3rd season, to lead Memphis back into its glory days so soon.
With a record of 37-18 following a stellar victory on the Orlando Magic’s homecourt, it’s quite clear what the Grizzlies are 55 games into the season. With run-and-gun being a loose term for the way they want to play, their bread and butter is through PnR actions leading to kick-outs to open shooters.
Ja Morant has become Dwyane Wade-esque in his pick ‘n’ roll IQ as once he’s curled around his screener, he’s as good as gone and defenses are left bewildered on what he might do next.
The Grizzlies are currently 7th in the league in DRTG at a respectable 108.5 and 6th in the league in ORTG at 112.6. Their fast paced offense that usually makes it onto House of Highlights every other night is validated on stat sheets with them being top 6 in pace in the entire league.
Strengths that can translate into the Playoffs
It’s quite clear what the Memphis Grizzlies are good at: 2-pointers. With guys like Jaren Jackson Jr, DeAnthony Melton, and of course, Ja Morant on the teams, it’s floater city at 191 Beale Street. They attempt the most shots from floater range which is about 5-9 feet away from the basket at 15 a game and knock down the most in the league as well at 6.3 per game.
Talking about scoring within the arc cannot go without mentioning Ja Morant and his ridiculous chokehold over the paint. He’s leading the league in points in the paint at 16.1 per game as a 6’3 guard, ahead of 7-footers like Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo.
The Memphis Grizzlies have the unique ability of dictating the pace at which a game goes. Two stops and two buckets and the Grizz have usually taken control of the game for the foreseeable future.
The fact that they’re second in the league in deflections shows just how potent they can be on the defensive end, resulting in fast-breaks or a break of flow in their opponents’ offense. The energy with which they play in terms of hustle (without Dillion Brooks mind you) is league leading with their loose balls recovered on the offensive end.
Overall, Ja Morant and company go for easier buckets and hustle on defense. With possessions being grinded out in the Playoffs, it’s tough to beat that.
Ja Morant dishes the behind-the-back dime 🤯
(📍 @StateFarm) pic.twitter.com/yOVfX5Kgvp
— ESPN (@espn) February 1, 2022
Potential weaknesses that could be exploited in the Playoffs.
3-point shooting. There isn’t much to this section other than that one aspect. Given the fact that zone defense is becoming increasingly common in the Playoffs, 3-point shooting following swing-swing action is crucial in getting around pesky perimeter defenders.
The Memphis Grizzlies are currently 24th in the league in 3-point attempts but 27th in the league in 3-point makes. They are also 27th in catch-and-shoot 3P% and knock down 32.6% of their pull-up threes.
Pull-up 3s are an essential component in breaking down zone defenses (think James Harden on the Rockets) and the Grizz clearly aren’t great at them. Another aspect that is worrisome is their free throw shooting percentage.
Given just how much they operate within the arc, they don’t make nearly enough of their free throws, knocking down 73.7% of them as a unit, which is good for 27th in the NBA.
Should the Memphis Grizzlies test the trade market?
Salary matching is the least of the concerns the Memphis Grizzlies have when it comes to going after talent prior to the February 10th trade deadline. The fact that everyone other than Steven Adams and Dillion Brooks are paid under $10 million a year makes this possible.
The Grizz are team that works off of locker room chemistry and this evident with how they take to the court night in and night out. Trading away players that result in positive vibes in the locker room for a slight upgrade could lead to a disconnect being formed between the players and the front office execs.
The Utah Jazz are in a similar bind with Joe Ingles who’s the clear cut glue guy of that team. Trading him away could prove to be detrimental.
The Grizzlies should be on the lookout for what teams like the Nuggets, Jazz, Suns, and Warriors do during the deadline and move accordingly. Test out the trade market with the intent of keeping guys rather than looking to trade some of them.
Potential Playoff seeding and opponents
Given that the Memphis Grizzlies are 6.5 games back from the Phoenix Suns for the number 1 seed, it’s safe to say that they won’t be catching the team that just had an 11-game win streak for that spot. The Golden State Warriors are an interesting case as their attempt to fill the void Draymond Green left with JTA or others has been iffy.
They Grizzlies are 2.5 games back from the 2nd seed and this is a realistic goal that they can achieve. Their ease of schedule for the remainder of February is high, going at least 6-2 is a possibility. It’s clear that they will be hovering around the 2-4 seed bracket for the most part as the Jazz are4 games back from their spot.
Given just how lively FedexForum gets, having homecourt advantage will be huge for the Memphis Grizzlies. The play-in race will most likely determine their first round opponents and the race for the 6th seed goes all the way down to the 9th seeded Lakers who are 3.5 GB from there.
The Lakers and the Clippers have the toughest remaining schedule in those teams at 54.4% and 52.6%, respectively so expect the Grizzlies to avoid them in the first round. The Nuggets and the Timberwolves have a higher chance of facing the Grizz in the first round but then again, the play-in tourney is quite unpredictable to say the least
