The Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills have faced off four times in the past five postseasons. Patrick Mahomes and Co. have prevailed and advanced on all four occasions. If salary cap space is any indication of how this year will end, it will be another long winter in Western New York.
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Heading into the 2025 campaign, the Bills have less cap space ($1.8 million) than every other team in the NFL. That includes the Chiefs, who rank 24th in cap space ($16.9 million), per Over The Cap. That gives Kansas City general manager Brett Veach roughly $15 million more to operate with in-season than Buffalo general manager Brandon Beane.
Both Mahomes and Allen lowered their respective 2025 cap hits via contract adjustments. Mahomes restructured his deal back in March, bringing his cap hit to $28 million. Allen’s dropped to $36.3 million following his historic extension. Their moves allowed their front offices to retain and obtain some big names:
- Without Mahomes’ restructure, the Chiefs would not have been able to franchise tag right guard Trey Smith. The 25-year-old Pro Bowler was destined to reach the open market before then, making him available to any franchise. Instead, Kansas City inked him to a four-year, $94 million extension in July.
- Allen’s extension gave the Bills the ability to add Joey Bosa and Josh Palmer in free agency. The two former Los Angeles Chargers each signed contracts with eight-figure salaries and are set to play key roles in Buffalo’s chase for Super Bowl glory.
Making things happen in the offseason is one thing, though. Having flexibility to adjust mid-season if/when things go awry is another. And at this moment, it’s easy to see that the Chiefs have an advantage in that department.
Where do Buffalo and Kansas City stack up in Super Bowl odds?
Patrick Mahomes has reached the Super Bowl in five of his seven seasons as a starting quarterback. In his worst years as a starter, he lost in overtime of the AFC Championship game. And, as mentioned, he’s 4-0 against the Bills (and Josh Allen) in the playoffs. By all means, he and the Chiefs should be favored to play for the Lombardi Trophy again in 2026.
Despite all of those facts, Kansas City lags behind Buffalo in most Super Bowl betting hierarchies. The Bills aren’t the only team ahead of the Chiefs, either. In DraftKings Sportsbook’s odds, Kansas City sits third among AFC teams and fifth overall.
- Buffalo Bills (+600)
- Baltimore Ravens (+600)
- Philadelphia Eagles (+700)
- Kansas City Chiefs (+850)
- Detroit Lions (+1100)
The Chiefs’ lower standing feels warranted, but that doesn’t mean it’s not disrespectful. And it gives Patrick Mahomes some bulletin board material that he has lacked in prior seasons. That motivation could prove to be the downfall of every foe that dares to cross his path. We’ll see how much he has taken to heart when Kansas City battles the Los Angeles Chargers in Brazil to open the season.
