Richard Sherman Joins Josh Allen vs. Saquon Barkley MVP Debate with Statistical Evidence

Through Week 13 of the 2024 NFL season, Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen is the MVP favorite. This pole positioning comes in spite of Allen’s production not coming close to that of Lamar Jackson or Joe Burrow, among others, in the league’s passing categories. And it’s leaving Richard Sherman perplexed.

On the latest episode of his personal podcast, Sherman admitted he is confused why Allen is perceived to be the “runaway favorite” for league MVP honors. The former Seattle Seahawks’ Super Bowl champion flashed back to 2023’s race while discussing the 2024 competition.

“I just don’t understand it when the numbers – I’m not talking about anything but the numbers, guys – [aren’t there]… last year, when I said ‘Lamar [Jackson], with 24 passing touchdowns, is gonna be the MVP?’ And they told me ‘yes, [you’re] sounding crazy. [You’re] stupid. [You’re] an idiot’… if you look at it and say, ‘completion percentage, does he lead the league? Is he top five?’ No. ‘Passing yards?’ Same, no. ‘Passing touchdowns?’ No.”

Jackson claimed his second MVP award last season in large part because of the Baltimore Ravens’ success. They went 13-4 and were the AFC’s No. 1 seed. Allen had a better statistical campaign by many metrics, but Buffalo’s 6-6 start doomed him.

This year – as discussed following Week 13 Sunday Night Football – has seen them reverse their roles. Jackson is having a stronger year than Allen in almost every category, but Allen is ahead of him in the race. The Bills are 10-2, and have already clinched the AFC East. The Ravens are 8-5, and currently hold a wild card spot.

If everything were graded equally, Jackson and Joe Burrow – even with the Cincinnati Bengals being 4-8 – would probably slot above Allen in the MVP hierarchy. Sherman isn’t arguing for either of those players to take home the award, though. Instead, he’s fighting for someone who could make NFL history.

Richard Sherman thinks Saquon Barkley should be the NFL MVP

The 2023 and 2024 seasons are similar in that the league’s best teams don’t have quarterbacks lighting up the stat sheet. (Jared Goff has played well, but hasn’t been consistent against upper-echelon foes. His only games with three or more passing scores came in contests the Detroit Lions won by a combined score of 151-29. Throwing five interceptions in a win also doesn’t create positive MVP perception.)

Whether that’s fair to Goff – who’s tied for FanDuel Sportsbook’s fourth-best MVP odds – or not is another conversation. What’s not debatable is the impact Barkley has made for the Philadelphia Eagles. Sherman detailed Barkley’s incredible season after discussing Allen’s MVP candidacy

“You look at Saquon Barkley. Over 12 games, he has pretty much 1,500 rushing yards [and] 11 rushing touchdowns, which should be 15 if it wasn’t for the ‘Tush Push.’ That’s starting to sound like MVP numbers. With five games to go, over 2,000 yards for a running back? That would sound like an MVP season. Don’t call me crazy. These are the numbers!”

Barkley leads the league in every rushing category except touchdowns. He is on pace to not only eclipse 2,000 rushing yards, but also to break Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record. He’s also on pace to finish just seven yards shy of Chris Johnson’s single-season yards from scrimmage mark. Setting new standards for both categories certainly feels MVP-worthy.

Unfortunately, history doesn’t seem to agree. Neither Dickerson (1984) nor Johnson (2009) won MVP in their record-setting campaigns. Dickerson finished second; Johnson didn’t garner a single vote. Last year, with no “truly dominant quarterback” leading the pack, Christian McCaffrey landed in third place despite posting 2,023 yards from scrimmage.

Could Barkley do what that trio didn’t and get over the hump? It’s possible. There’s a reason he’s second in most sportsbooks’ odds lists as December begins. What’s more likely, though, are Offensive Player of the Year honors. Johnson and McCaffrey each won that award for their respective efforts (Dickerson placed behind Marino in a time voters didn’t essentially reserve OPOY for non-quarterbacks).

A player of Barkley’s caliber doesn’t need extra motivation ahead of his first real chance at a Super Bowl title. But being snubbed for MVP may just provide it. If the Eagles make it to the big game, you can bet he’ll be ready to go nuclear. And if he does, the glory of a Lombardi Trophy and possible Super Bowl MVP honors would probably be a suitable consolation prize.